Clausura - 19 · 13 November 2026, 00:00 UTC

Llaneros vs Chico Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Bello Horizonte, Villavicencio
Referee: Carlos Andrés Márquez Ortega, Colombia
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Llaneros 0-0 Chico.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Llaneros, 29% draw, 21% Chico — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).

Expected goals: Llaneros 1.45, Chico 0.73.

Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Other predictions for 15 Nov

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Model insights: Llaneros vs Chico

40%
Both teams to score
37%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 16%1-1 13%2-0 12%

Has the model earned this number?

Llaneros at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Llaneros5%Draw93%Chico2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

J. Escobar Salcedo
21'
29'
S. Mera
Jhon Vasquez
48'
50'
J. Mena
56'
🔁J. Pimentelout: S. Viveros
🔁D. Quinteroout: V. Vidal
61'
🔁J. Ramirezout: J. Castro
62'
🔁J. Castillaout: C. Cortes
62'
64'
🔁S. Meraout: J. Pimentel Betancourt
70'
🔁A. Mayaout: Y. Cabrera
71'
🔁J. Diazout: J. C. Palacios
🔁N. Ospinaout: K. Rincon
79'
🔁J. Contrerasout: C. Cordoba
87'

Match stats — Llaneros vs Chico

62%Possession38%
10Shots10
4On target2
10Corners4
0.54xG0.67

Goals against chances

Llaneros0 from 0.54 xGless than the chances were worth
Chico0 from 0.67 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Llaneros 4-2-3-1
  • 12Juan LoaizaG
  • 4Juan PertuzD
  • 26Dennys QuinteroD
  • 21Francisco MezaD
  • 16Jhojan EscobarD
  • 6Marlon SierraM
  • 13Juan CastillaM
  • 10Neider OspinaM
  • 8Juan RamirezM
  • 70Joel ContrerasM
  • 95Jhon VásquezF
Substitutes
  • 3Víctor VidalD
  • 30Julian BeltranD
  • 9Carlos CortésF
  • 14Kevin RincónF
  • 35Carlos CórdobaM
  • 22Roameth RomañaG
  • 31Emilio PardoD
  • 36Alison SánchezD
  • 33Kelvin OsorioM
Chico 4-4-2
  • 1David AgudeloG
  • 11Delio RamírezD
  • 4Jefferson MenaD
  • 25Sebastián PalmaD
  • 14Cristian BlancoD
  • 17Estiven SarriaM
  • 28Jesús CárdenasM
  • 6Juan DiazM
  • 16Santiago MeraM
  • 22Alejandro MayaF
  • 21Jacobo PimentelF
Substitutes
  • 20Sebastián ViverosM
  • 19Jeronimo PimentelM
  • 10Yesus CabreraM
  • 18Junior PalaciosD
  • 12Branndon ZapataG
  • 8Sebastian SalazarM

Form going into Llaneros vs Chico

Llaneros

Primera A

  • W2-1away to Alianza Valledupar9 November 2026
  • W3-2Junior31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Jaguares26 October 2026
  • L0-3Deportivo Cali21 October 2026

Chico

Primera A

  • W2-1Internacional de Bogota6 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Deportivo Cali1 November 2026
  • D1-1Junior28 October 2026
  • W1-0Bucaramanga23 October 2026

What these results say

  • Llaneros conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Llaneros had three goals or more.
  • Chico scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Chico conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Chico had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Llaneros197392124-324
15Chico195591529-1420

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Llaneros vs Chico

  • 27 May 2026Chico 0–1 LlanerosCopa Colombia
  • 2 May 2026Chico 3–0 LlanerosPrimera A
  • 23 July 2025Llaneros 2–1 ChicoPrimera A
  • 8 February 2025Chico 2–2 LlanerosPrimera A
  • 2 November 2022Chico 3–0 LlanerosPrimera B
  • 18 October 2022Llaneros 1–0 ChicoPrimera B

The result against the call

Llaneros and Chico drew 0–0. On expected goals it finished 0.54–0.67.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Llaneros Chico
0.58 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.48
1.5 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.73
1.45 Model expected goals (this match) 0.73

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Llaneros the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Llaneros against 0.73 for Chico. Llaneros's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.73 for Chico.

How the model reaches 50% for Llaneros to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Llaneros to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Llaneros's ratings add 5 points and Chico's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 50%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground35%
  2. Home advantage44%+9
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Llaneros's ratings47%+5
  5. Chico's ratings50%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.