Clausura - 19 · 14 November 2026, 20:30 UTC

Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Alberto Grisales, Rionegro
Referee: Wilmar Roldan, Colombia
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Águilas Doradas 0-1 Independiente Medellin.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Águilas Doradas, 29% draw, 32% Independiente Medellin — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Águilas Doradas 1.35, Independiente Medellin 1.16.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin

52%
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 10%0-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

Águilas Doradas at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Águilas Doradas0%Draw4%Independiente Medellin96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jorge Soto (pen)
3'
11'
🔁Diego Morenoout: Baldomero Perlaza
41'
Didier Moreno
🔁Matías Ramírezout: Andrés Carreño
46'
🔁Iván Rojasout: Juan Ávalo
46'
60'
🔁Keiner Klingerout: Jackson Martínez
60'
🔁Daniel Catañoout: Léider Berrío
60'
🔁John Edwin Montañoout: Yony González
78'
Frank Fabra
79'
🔁Jeison Medinaout: Jhan Mena
83'
⚽Léider Berríoassist: Yony González
🔁Juan Camilo Roaout: Jhon Meléndez
85'
🔁Javier Menaout: Carlos Londoño
85'
Jhon Meléndez
90'
🔁Eduar Arízalasout: Angel Cortes
90'

Match stats — Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin

68%Possession32%
11Shots15
3On target7
5Corners2
1.46xG0.94

Goals against chances

Águilas Doradas0 from 1.46 xGless than the chances were worth
Independiente Medellin1 from 0.94 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Águilas Doradas
  • 1Jorge SotoG
  • 19Frank LozanoD
  • 2John GarcíaD
  • 3John OntanedaD
  • 32Javier MenaD
  • 25Juan Camilo RoaM
  • 6Iván RojasM
  • 8Andrés RicaurteM
  • 16Matías RamírezF
  • 9Anthony VásquezF
  • 7Eduar ArízalasF
Substitutes
  • 24Juan ÁvaloM
  • 18Andrés CarreñoF
  • 13Jhon MeléndezD
  • 27Carlos LondoñoM
  • 14Angel CortesM
  • 12Juan HurtadoG
  • 20Alberto HigginsD
  • 30Nicolás LaraD
  • 28Sebastián RodríguezD
Coach: Flavio Robatto
Independiente Medellin
  • 25Eder ChauxG
  • 16Halam LoboaD
  • 39Luis EscorciaD
  • 19Alfonso SimarraD
  • 18Frank FabraD
  • 6Didier MorenoM
  • 31Diego MorenoM
  • 34Keiner KlingerM
  • 10Daniel CatañoM
  • 20John Edwin MontañoM
  • 9Jeison MedinaF
Substitutes
  • 14Baldomero PerlazaM
  • 11Yony GonzálezF
  • 7Léider BerríoM
  • 15Jackson MartínezF
  • 13Jhan MenaD
  • 1Salvador IchazoG
  • 5Joaquin VarelaD
  • 32Carlos LucumiF
  • 28Andrés DávilaF
Coach: Luis Perea

Form going into Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin

Águilas Doradas

Primera A

  • L0-1away to Once Caldas7 November 2026
  • W1-0Fortaleza FC2 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Cucuta27 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Junior24 October 2026

Independiente Medellin

Primera A

  • W3-0away to Fortaleza FC7 November 2026
  • W2-1Alianza Valledupar1 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Internacional de Bogota29 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Atletico Nacional25 October 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 4 matches for Águilas Doradas had two goals or fewer.
  • Independiente Medellin scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Independiente Medellin had three goals or more.
  • Independiente Medellin conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Águilas Doradas196762222025
6Independiente Medellin1910272925+432

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin

  • 3 May 2026Independiente Medellin 1–2 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
  • 8 October 2025Águilas Doradas 2–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
  • 30 March 2025Independiente Medellin 0–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
  • 15 September 2024Águilas Doradas 1–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
  • 3 March 2024Independiente Medellin 1–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
  • 26 August 2023Águilas Doradas 1–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A

Leading scorers: Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin

Águilas Doradas

GoalsAssists

  • Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto110

Independiente Medellin

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Independiente Medellin (6th, with Águilas Doradas 11th), while our numbers lean to Águilas Doradas. Águilas Doradas rate 0.63 in attack and 1.41 in defence, Independiente Medellin 0.81 and 1.48 (lower is better in defence), so Águilas Doradas have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 7-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Águilas Doradas a 26.9% chance to finish in the top eight: 57.2% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 0.0%, 26.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Águilas Doradas Independiente Medellin
0.63 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.81
1.41 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.48
1.35 Model expected goals (this match) 1.16

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Águilas Doradas the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Águilas Doradas against 1.16 for Independiente Medellin. Águilas Doradas's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.48 for Independiente Medellin.

Águilas Doradas carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.55 for Independiente Medellin. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for Águilas Doradas to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Águilas Doradas to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Águilas Doradas's ratings take away 4 points and Independiente Medellin's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground35%
  2. Home advantage44%+9
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. Águilas Doradas's ratings41%−4
  5. Independiente Medellin's ratings39%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.