FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: FC Volendam 6-2 Jong Utrecht.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% FC Volendam, 24% draw, 20% Jong Utrecht — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Volendam at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. JurjusG
- 18N. BukalaD
- 25Luca BlondeauD
- 3M. AmevorD
- 2P. UgwuD
- 8D. HuismanM
- 10R. NiemeijerM
- 6A. PlatM
- 7N. DoodemanF
- 9H. VeermanF
- 21Y. el MaftahiF
- 17Miguel Opoku AgyemangF
- 34M. BelfqihM
- 5Dean BisschopsD
- 67F. IhlerF
- 63J. HaakmatD
- 12D. PayneD
- 11Kayden WolffF
- 16R. SteurG
- 29Jesper TielemansF
- 1K. GadellaaG
- 2Yousri SbaiD
- 3J. SchuldesD
- 6W. KooyD
- 5Viggo PlantingaD
- 8J. van OmmerenM
- 14F. PohlM
- 9E. C. OwenM
- 11Massien GhaddariM
- 7Bjorn MenzoM
- 10N. DundasF
- 13A. AslaniM
- 12Noël BeulensD
- 31Justin EversenG
- 16Kenji GoesM
- 15Matyas HavelkaM
- 18D. LaaouinaM
- 19R. OmorowaF
- 21L. RietveldM
- 32M. TsankovG
Form going into FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht
FC Volendam
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1away to Waalwijk18 October 2026
Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie
- L1-2Roda19 October 2026
- L1-2away to De Graafschap9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Volendam | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 27 | +7 | 22 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht
- 28 April 2025Jong Utrecht 2–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 8 November 2024FC Volendam 2–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 4 February 2022FC Volendam 2–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 22 November 2021Jong Utrecht 0–1 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 16 April 2021Jong Utrecht 2–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 11 September 2020FC Volendam 0–1 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht
FC Volendam
GoalsAssists
- H. Veerman142
- R. Niemeijer52
Jong Utrecht
GoalsAssists
- E. C. Owen60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Volendam beat Jong Utrecht 6–2. The model had made a win for FC Volendam its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Emmanuel Chigozie Owen 17' for Jong Utrecht, Henk Veerman (penalty) 32' for FC Volendam, Henk Veerman 39' for FC Volendam, Henk Veerman 41' for FC Volendam, Massien Ghaddari 46' for Jong Utrecht, Frederik Ihler 53' for FC Volendam, Frederik Ihler 66' for FC Volendam, Y. Jaber el Maftahi 80' for FC Volendam. On expected goals it finished 2.83–1.82.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Volendam a 63.6% chance to finish in the top eight: 67.4% after a win, 58.9% after a draw, 54.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.4%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.
For Jong Utrecht the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 45.1% going in: 36.0% after a win, 42.0% after a draw, 48.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.4%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC Volendam v Jong Utrecht has moved
First published on 9 Oct at 59% / 24% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 56% / 24% / 20%: the biggest move is FC Volendam's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- FC Volendam win56%▼ −3
- Draw24%=
- Jong Utrecht win20%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.