Den Bosch vs MVV Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Den Bosch 2-2 MVV.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Den Bosch, 26% draw, 20% MVV — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Den Bosch at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Den Bosch vs MVV
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. van de MerbelG
- 2S. BarglanD
- 22Jeffry FortesD
- 33M. LarosD
- 3S. MaasD
- 18H. EikelboomM
- 35B. van SchuppenM
- 10Devon DecorteM
- 8K. MonzialoF
- 9S. Karlsson GrachF
- 40I. BoumassaoudiF
- 11J. De VriesM
- 39S. van DaalenM
- 4J. van HeertumD
- 31E. BijlsmaG
- 25Silvan BrokerD
- 27L. HoffmanF
- 21F. MurreG
- 17E. SemedoF
- 16Wang BohaoM
- 1H. WentgesG
- 17S. WegenD
- 2M. HoflandD
- 6F. DickeD
- 25Yael LiesdekD
- 18E. SierraM
- 16R. KlaasenM
- 19Mika LuijendijkM
- 10O. DumontM
- 7L. DaneelsM
- 11T. VerheijenF
- 27Naïm MatougF
- 14M. KuipersF
- 23V. GoffingsG
- 31Yanis BourardM
- 22Sven BoulandD
- 33Tristan BombleD
- 21D. AsanteF
- 20A. AmgarM
- 34Samy MoumniF
Form going into Den Bosch vs MVV
Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie
- W2-1FC OSS16 October 2026
MVV
Eerste Divisie
- L1-5Heracles18 October 2026
- L0-1away to NAC Breda9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Den Bosch | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | MVV | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Den Bosch vs MVV
- 18 January 2026Den Bosch 1–2 MVVEerste Divisie
- 16 September 2025MVV 2–4 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 18 January 2025MVV 5–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 30 October 2024MVV 2–1 Den BoschKNVB Beker
- 23 August 2024Den Bosch 1–1 MVVEerste Divisie
- 23 March 2024MVV 1–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Den Bosch and MVV
Den Bosch
GoalsAssists
- S. Karlsson Grach60
MVV
GoalsAssists
- O. Dumont51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Den Bosch and MVV drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Den Bosch at 54% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Sebastian Karlsson Grach 9' for Den Bosch, Robert Klaasen 54' for MVV, Ilias Boumassaoudi 61' for Den Bosch, Finn Dicke 78' for MVV. Sent off: Pepijn van de Merbel (Den Bosch) 80'. On expected goals it finished 1.10–0.89.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Den Bosch a 24.3% chance to finish in the top eight: 27.2% after a win, 21.4% after a draw, 16.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 21.4%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
For MVV the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 34.5% going in: 24.7% after a win, 33.2% after a draw, 37.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 33.2%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Den Bosch v MVV has moved
First published on 9 Oct at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is Den Bosch's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Den Bosch win54%▲ +3
- Draw26%=
- MVV win20%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.