23 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Jan Louwers Stadion, Eindhoven
Full time1 – 2

Final score: FC Eindhoven 1-2 Jong PSV U21.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% FC Eindhoven, 28% draw, 28% Jong PSV U21 — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Eindhoven at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Eindhoven0%Draw5%Jong PSV U2195%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Samuel Dumbiliassist: Rivas Manuhutu
⚽Rayan·Buifrahiassist: Vicente Besuijen
31'
Xander Blomme
64'
65'
🔁Samuel Dumbiliout: Jairo Beerens
Clint Essers
76'
76'
⚽Austyn Jones (pen)
🔁Xander Blommeout: Niek Munsters
76'
🔁Vicente Besuijenout: tyrese simons
76'
77'
🔁Michael Bresserout: Philip Holseter-Karlsen
80'
Tijn Smolenaars
Siegert Baartmans
80'
🔁Guus Beaumontout: Hugo Deenen
82'
🔁Clint Essersout: Amir Bryson
90'
90+2'
Austyn Jones

Match stats — FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21

53%Possession47%
27Shots9
6On target7
7Corners5
1.72xG1.92

Goals against chances

FC Eindhoven1 from 1.72 xGless than the chances were worth
Jong PSV U212 from 1.92 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Eindhoven 4-4-2
  • 1J. BorgmansG
  • 22C. EssersD
  • 4Predrag JevtićD
  • 44O. RenfrumD
  • 20Raf van de RietD
  • 28R. BuifrahiM
  • 8X. BlommeM
  • 6G. BeaumontM
  • 77V. BesuijenM
  • 19Kevin FerreiraF
  • 18Antonio BaždarićF
Substitutes
  • 2Tyrese SimonsD
  • 13A. BrysonF
  • 23Gideon ConstanciaF
  • 7H. DeenenF
  • 27E. EksiF
  • 30N. FancitoG
  • 32M. HoekD
  • 31N. JanssenG
  • 14N. MunstersM
Coach: Jan Poortvliet
Jong PSV U21 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. SmolenaarsG
  • 2K. PensoD
  • 3M. BresserD
  • 4M. MonamayD
  • 5R. ManuhutuD
  • 8B. MuldersM
  • 6F. MeriénM
  • 7S. DumbiliM
  • 10S. SidibeM
  • 11F. KluitM
  • 9A. JonesF
Substitutes
  • 15D. StamD
  • 19Will OstranderF
  • 16Khadim NgomG
  • 23Stijn KuijstenG
  • 14B. JonkersD
  • 20P. Holseter-KarlsenM
  • 18S DitmerD
  • 17J. BeerensF
Coach: Rens Sleegers

Form going into FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21

FC Eindhoven

Eerste Divisie

  • L0-1Vitesse16 October 2026

Jong PSV U21

Eerste Divisie

  • L0-1Dordrecht19 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Roda9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17FC Eindhoven154292032-1214
13Jong PSV U21144551822-417

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21

  • 13 March 2026Jong PSV U21 1–2 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
  • 5 December 2025FC Eindhoven 4–0 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
  • 28 April 2025Jong PSV U21 0–2 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
  • 29 November 2024FC Eindhoven 1–0 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
  • 12 April 2024FC Eindhoven 2–5 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
  • 23 October 2023Jong PSV U21 3–4 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie

The result against the call

Jong PSV U21 won 2–1 at FC Eindhoven. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Eindhoven at 44% and given a win for Jong PSV U21 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Samuel Dumbili 11' for Jong PSV U21, Rayan·Buifrahi 31' for FC Eindhoven, Austyn Jones (penalty) 76' for Jong PSV U21. On expected goals it finished 1.72–1.92.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Eindhoven a 19.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 14.7% after a win, 21.1% after a draw, 26.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.9%, 7 points higher than before the match.

For Jong PSV U21 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 15.9% going in: 9.8% after a win, 14.7% after a draw, 19.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.8%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.