Castellón vs Albacete Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Castellón 2-0 Albacete.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Castellón, 27% draw, 26% Albacete — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Castellón at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Castellón vs Albacete
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13R. MatthysG
- 22J. MellotD
- 5A. JimenezD
- 4A. SienraD
- 2Juanjo NietoM
- 21AlvaroM
- 8BarriM
- 14I. CordobaM
- 18P. SantiagoF
- 17F. CastilloF
- 9O. CamaraF
- 1A. SaipiG
- 11F. CeccheriniD
- 12L. AlcazarD
- 10I. SueroM
- 23A. GarciaF
- 27A. GalaM
- 25J. VlakM
- 7R. SanchezF
- 6M. OrozcoM
- 13D. MarinoG
- 15F. GamezD
- 5J. MorenoD
- 22L. LopezD
- 21C. NevaD
- 18S. OrtunoM
- 8J. VillarM
- 2LorenzoM
- 4Agus MedinaM
- 17J. CorpasM
- 9M. SoberonF
- 1C. MarinG
- 24J. VallejoD
- 27D. BernabeuD
- 6A. PachecoM
- 44Antonio DavidM
- 32A. AlbarracinF
- 12H. MarinF
- 19A. RubioF
Form going into Castellón vs Albacete
Castellón
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Celta de Vigo II31 August 2026
- D0-0Sabadell23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Real Sociedad II14 August 2026
Albacete
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Oviedo29 August 2026
- L1-2Real Sociedad II22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Las Palmas16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Castellón | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 30 |
| 21 | Albacete | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Castellón vs Albacete
- 28 March 2026Albacete 1–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 19 October 2025Castellón 0–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 4 April 2025Castellón 2–2 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 8 December 2024Albacete 0–0 CastellónSegunda División
- 6 August 2023Castellón 2–6 AlbaceteFriendlies Clubs
- 17 April 2022Castellón 0–0 AlbacetePrimera División RFEF - Group 2
Leading scorers: Castellón and Albacete
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Israel Suero62
- A. Jakobsen41
- Ousmane Camara41
Albacete
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Castellón beat Albacete 2–0. The model had made a win for Castellón its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: O. Camara 56' for Castellón, I. Suero 62' for Castellón. On expected goals it finished 4.09–0.30.
How the call on Castellón v Albacete has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Castellón's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Castellón win47%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Albacete win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.