Almeria
vs
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Almeria 2–0 Sporting Gijon
The model makes it 54% Almeria, 25% draw, 21% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Almeria 1.92, Sporting Gijon 0.99.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Almeria: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Almeria's rating is built from 60 Segunda División matches and Sporting Gijon's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.
Key facts
- Almeria are top on 32 points from 14 games; Sporting Gijon are 8th on 23 points from 14 games — Segunda División.
- Almeria are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Andorra.
- Sporting Gijon have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Real Sociedad II.
- Last 6 meetings: Almeria 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Sporting Gijon 3–1 Almeria.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Almeria vs Sporting Gijon
Has the model earned this number?
Almeria at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Almeria vs Sporting Gijon
Almeria
Segunda División
- W2-1FC Andorra14 November 2026
- W1-0away to Girona8 November 2026
- D1-1away to Eibar31 October 2026
- D2-2Oviedo24 October 2026
- W4-2away to Real Sociedad II17 October 2026
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División
- D2-2away to Real Sociedad II14 November 2026
- L1-2Valladolid8 November 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC1 November 2026
- L0-4away to Castellón25 October 2026
- W2-1Albacete17 October 2026
What these results say
- Almeria went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Almeria scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Almeria conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Gijon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Gijon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Gijon had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 32 |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Almeria vs Sporting Gijon
- 24 May 2026Sporting Gijon 3–1 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 20 September 2025Almeria 2–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 22 February 2025Sporting Gijon 1–1 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 31 August 2024Almeria 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 25 April 2022Almeria 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 2 November 2021Sporting Gijon 0–1 AlmeriaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Almeria and Sporting Gijon
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente91
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Almeria a 30.3% chance of the title and Sporting Gijon 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Almeria the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Almeria against 0.99 for Sporting Gijon. Almeria's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.35 for Sporting Gijon.
How the model reaches 54% for Almeria to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Almeria to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Almeria's ratings add 6 points and Sporting Gijon's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Almeria's ratings49%+6
- Sporting Gijon's ratings54%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Almeria at home · Sporting Gijon away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Almeria 14, Sporting Gijon 14.
Almeria score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Sporting Gijon have let in 1 there.
Sporting Gijon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Almeria have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Almeria
- at Castellón6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Albacete13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 61%
- vs Valladolid20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 58%
- at Granada CF3 Jan · Segunda Divisiónwin 38%
Sporting Gijon
- vs Granada CF6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
- at Eibar13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
- vs Leganes20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 51%
- at Mallorca3 Jan · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.