Eibar
vs
Burgos
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Eibar 1–0 Burgos
The model makes it 44% Eibar, 30% draw, 26% Burgos — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Eibar 1.32, Burgos 0.91.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Eibar's rating is built from 54 Segunda División matches and Burgos's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.
Key facts
- Eibar are 6th on 23 points from 12 games; Burgos are 4th on 24 points from 14 games — Segunda División.
- Eibar are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Almeria.
- Burgos have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Leganes.
- Last 6 meetings: Burgos 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Eibar 0–0 Burgos.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Eibar vs Burgos
Has the model earned this number?
Eibar at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Eibar vs Burgos
Eibar
Segunda División
- D1-1Almeria31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Cordoba24 October 2026
- D1-1Mallorca17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Oviedo12 October 2026
- W3-1away to Albacete3 October 2026
Burgos
Segunda División
- L1-3away to Leganes13 November 2026
- W2-1Celta de Vigo II7 November 2026
- D1-1Castellón1 November 2026
- W3-2away to FC Andorra26 October 2026
- W1-0Sabadell18 October 2026
What these results say
- Eibar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Eibar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eibar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burgos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Burgos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Burgos.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Eibar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Burgos | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Eibar vs Burgos
- 15 March 2026Eibar 0–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 10 January 2026Burgos 1–0 EibarSegunda División
- 2 August 2025Burgos 1–0 EibarFriendlies Clubs
- 17 May 2025Eibar 1–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 23 November 2024Burgos 1–0 EibarSegunda División
- 10 March 2024Eibar 0–1 BurgosSegunda División
Leading scorers: Eibar and Burgos
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Iván Gil41
Burgos
GoalsAssists
- Álex Forés41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Burgos (fourth, with Eibar sixth), while our numbers lean to Eibar. Eibar rate 0.77 in attack and 1.14 in defence, Burgos 0.66 and 1.11 (lower is better in defence), so Eibar have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Eibar a 5% chance of the title and Burgos 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Eibar the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Eibar against 0.91 for Burgos. Eibar's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.11 for Burgos.
How the model reaches 44% for Eibar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Eibar to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Eibar's ratings add 2 points and Burgos's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level40%−3
- Eibar's ratings42%+2
- Burgos's ratings44%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Eibar at home · Burgos away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Eibar 12, Burgos 14.
Eibar score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Burgos have let in 6 there.
Burgos score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Eibar have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Eibar
- at Sabadell6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Sporting Gijon13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
Burgos
- vs Cadiz6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 52%
- at Mallorca13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Girona20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
- at Valladolid3 Jan · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.