Regular Season - 16 · 29 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Eldense vs Girona Segunda División prediction

Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat, Elda

Our model says: Eldense 0–1 Girona

The model makes it 26% Eldense, 29% draw, 45% Girona — fair odds of 3.85, 3.45 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Eldense 0.96, Girona 1.43.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

One-sided: Girona are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Eldense's rating is built from 13 Segunda División matches and Girona's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.

Key facts

  • Eldense are 16th on 14 points from 13 games; Girona are 3rd on 24 points from 14 games — Segunda División.
  • Eldense are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Las Palmas.
  • Girona have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Oviedo.

More Segunda División predictions

All Segunda División predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Eldense vs Girona

48%
Both teams to score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Eldense win Draw Girona win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–112%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 0–29%
  5. 1–29%
  6. 1–08%
  7. 2–16%

Scores read Eldense first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Girona at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Eldense vs Girona

Eldense

Segunda División

  • L0-2away to Las Palmas9 November 2026
  • L0-2Granada CF1 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Albacete25 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Valladolid18 October 2026
  • W2-1Cordoba10 October 2026

Girona

Segunda División

  • W2-1away to Oviedo14 November 2026
  • L0-1Almeria8 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Real Sociedad II31 October 2026
  • W5-1Celta de Vigo II24 October 2026
  • W2-0FC Andorra18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Eldense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Girona conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Eldense134271319-614
3Girona147342413+1124

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Leading scorers: Eldense and Girona

Eldense

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Girona

GoalsAssists

  • V. Vanat52
  • Y. Asprilla51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Eldense a 0% chance of the title and Girona 5.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Eldense Girona
0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.81
1.47 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.05
0.96 Model expected goals (this match) 1.43

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Girona the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Eldense against 1.43 for Girona. Eldense's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.05 for Girona.

Eldense carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.72 for Girona.

How the model reaches 45% for Girona to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Girona to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Eldense's ratings add 8 points and Girona's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage30%−6
  3. Both sides at this match's level29%−1
  4. Eldense's ratings37%+8
  5. Girona's ratings45%+8

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

EldenseGirona
13Matches14
4W 2D 7LRecord7W 3D 4L
13 1.0 per gameGoals scored24 1.7 per game
19 1.5 per gameGoals conceded13 0.9 per game
2 of 13Clean sheets4 of 14
7 of 13Failed to score3 of 14
3 of 3Penalties scored1 of 1
36 2.8 per gameYellow cards37 2.6 per game
0Red cards2
4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape4-4-2 7×

Eldense at home · Girona away

6Played6
2W 2D 2LRecord3W 1D 2L
9–8Goals for – against8–6
1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda División matches this season: Eldense 13, Girona 14.

Eldense scored 001334
Girona conceded 111414

Eldense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Girona have let in 4 there.

Girona scored 455524
Eldense conceded 334222

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Eldense

  • at Tenerife6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
  • vs FC Andorra13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%
  • at Celta de Vigo II20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%

Girona

  • vs Valladolid6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 56%
  • at Granada CF13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%
  • at Burgos20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
  • vs Sabadell3 Jan · Segunda Divisiónwin 48%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.