7 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Alverca vs Casa Pia Primeira Liga prediction & result

FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo
Referee: Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Alverca 1-1 Casa Pia.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Alverca, 28% draw, 20% Casa Pia — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Alverca at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Alverca5%Draw93%Casa Pia2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ian Luccas
22'
25'
Pedro Rosas
36'
⚽Selvi Cluaassist: Henrique Araújo
Davy Gui
40'
Francisco Chiquinho
48'
55'
🔁Jérémy Livolantout: Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri
🔁Francisco Chissumbaout: André Vidigal
57'
🔁Davy Guiout: Rayan Lucas
58'
⚽Ian Luccasassist: Francisco Chiquinho
66'
🔁Dawda Camara Sankharéout: Vivaldo Semedo
67'
🔁Lucas Figueiredo dos Santosout: Matheus Franca
67'
71'
🔁Benjamin Pauwelsout: Rochinha
72'
🔁Selvi Cluaout: Lawrence Ofori
82'
🔁Henrique Araújoout: Cassiano
🔁Francisco Chiquinhoout: Cedric Nuozzi
82'

Match stats — Alverca vs Casa Pia

56%Possession44%
15Shots11
5On target4
9Corners2
0.76xG0.97

Goals against chances

Alverca1 from 0.76 xGabout what the chances were worth
Casa Pia1 from 0.97 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Alverca 3-4-3
  • 31Matheus MendesG
  • 4Y. BojangD
  • 21Sergi GómezD
  • 12I. JamesD
  • 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesM
  • 25Ian LuccasM
  • 6D. GuiM
  • 55Francisco ChissumbaM
  • 10ChiquinhoF
  • 19D. CamaraF
  • 22FigueiredoF
Substitutes
  • 7André VidigalF
  • 23André PauloG
  • 26Matheus FrançaF
  • 24E. JemideD
  • 35RayanM
  • 3J. MartínezD
  • 11C. NuozziF
  • 9Vivaldo SemedoF
  • 27Toni TamaritF
Coach: Sérgio Ferreira
Casa Pia 4-3-3
  • 1P. SequeiraG
  • 18GeraldesD
  • 3KalyD
  • 43David SousaD
  • 75Pedro RosasD
  • 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
  • 24S. PérezM
  • 16SilviM
  • 29J. LivolantF
  • 9Henrique AraújoF
  • 77B. PauwelsF
Substitutes
  • 59Abdu DafeM
  • 90CassianoF
  • 44Felipe SilvaD
  • 8Gabi PereiraM
  • 4João GoulartD
  • 98JPM
  • 95Ivan MandićG
  • 17E. MaurinF
  • 80L. OforiM
Coach: Filipe Coelho

Form going into Alverca vs Casa Pia

Alverca

Primeira Liga

  • L0-1away to Benfica2 November 2026
  • L0-1Arouca24 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Famalicao12 October 2026
  • W1-0Rio Ave19 September 2026

Casa Pia

Primeira Liga

  • L0-2Sporting CP30 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Estrela24 October 2026
  • L0-1Santa Clara10 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Estoril20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Alverca conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Alverca had two goals or fewer.
  • Casa Pia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Casa Pia had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Alverca113351415-112
16Casa Pia11227620-148

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Alverca vs Casa Pia

  • 12 April 2026Alverca 3–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 29 November 2025Casa Pia 0–2 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
  • 2 August 2025Alverca 2–3 Casa PiaFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Alverca and Casa Pia

Alverca

GoalsAssists

  • Vivaldo Semedo30

Casa Pia

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Alverca and Casa Pia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Alverca at 52% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Selvi Clua 36' for Casa Pia, Ian Luccas 66' for Alverca. On expected goals it finished 0.76–0.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Casa Pia a 53.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 40.8% after a win, 54.1% after a draw, 57.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 54.1%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Alverca v Casa Pia has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 57% / 25% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 52% / 28% / 20%: the biggest move is Alverca's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Alverca win52%▼ −5
  2. Draw28%▲ +3
  3. Casa Pia win20%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.