Sporting CP vs Moreirense Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sporting CP 1-0 Moreirense.
Before kick-off the model made it 73% Sporting CP, 16% draw, 11% Moreirense — fair odds of 1.37, 6.25 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sporting CP at 73%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting CP vs Moreirense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30KaiqueG
- 22Iván FresnedaD
- 72Eduardo QuaresmaD
- 25Gonçalo InácioD
- 20M. AraújoD
- 4S. AndersenM
- 5Sergi AltimiraM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 31Luis GuilhermeF
- 97L. SuárezF
- 19N. IrankundaF
- 13G. VagiannidisD
- 8João SimõesM
- 1Rui SilvaG
- 17R. ZalazarM
- 18M. ZekriD
- 10Geny CatamoM
- 21Pedro LimaM
- 55Ibrahima BaD
- 28J. DerryF
- 13André FerreiraG
- 76Dinis PintoD
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 23N. JohnM
- 65Guilherme LiberatoM
- 28Chipyoka SongaM
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
- 11LandersonM
- 79L. VonićF
- 26MaracásD
- 21Rodri AlonsoM
- 2Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 89Afonso VieiraF
- 25Afonso AssisM
- 1AranhaG
- 99MaranhãoF
- 32JoséD
Form going into Sporting CP vs Moreirense
Sporting CP
Primeira Liga
- W2-0away to Casa Pia30 October 2026
- L1-2Academico Viseu25 October 2026
- W3-1away to SC Braga9 October 2026
- D2-2Arouca19 September 2026
Moreirense
Primeira Liga
- W2-1Estrela31 October 2026
- W3-1away to Estoril25 October 2026
- L0-1GIL Vicente9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vitória SC20 September 2026
What these results say
- Sporting CP scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sporting CP conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sporting CP had three goals or more.
- Moreirense conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Moreirense scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Moreirense.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting CP vs Moreirense
- 21 February 2026Moreirense 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 22 September 2025Sporting CP 3–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 18 April 2025Sporting CP 3–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 5 December 2024Moreirense 2–1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 19 February 2024Moreirense 0–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 17 September 2023Sporting CP 3–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Moreirense
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez91
- Flávio Gonçalves31
Moreirense
GoalsAssists
- N. John30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sporting CP beat Moreirense 1–0. The model had made a win for Sporting CP its most likely outcome, at 73%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Luis Suárez 61' for Sporting CP. On expected goals it finished 2.08–0.55.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sporting CP a 27.9% chance to finish in the top two: 29.1% after a win, 24.1% after a draw, 17.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.1%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
For Moreirense the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.3% going in: under 1% after a win, 3.4% after a draw, 5.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.8%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sporting CP v Moreirense has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 76% / 15% / 9% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 73% / 16% / 11%: the biggest move is Sporting CP's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Sporting CP win73%▼ −3
- Draw16%▲ +1
- Moreirense win11%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.