7 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Nacional vs Academico Viseu Primeira Liga prediction & result

Funchal
Referee: Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Nacional 1-0 Academico Viseu.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Nacional, 28% draw, 45% Academico Viseu — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Academico Viseu at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nacional95%Draw5%Academico Viseu0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
Cihan Kahraman
Stavros Gavriel
42'
🔁Stavros Gavrielout: Daniel de Melo Araujo Junior
45'
50'
João Guilherme
68'
Robinho
🔁Miguel Baezaout: Matchoi Djaló
69'
70'
🔁Cihan Kahramanout: Alejandro Mestanza
70'
🔁João Guilhermeout: Alvaro Zamora
70'
🔁Nils Mortimerout: Lorougnon Gohi
🔁Markus Jensenout: Deivison Souza Brito
75'
🔁Chiheb Labidiout: Danel Dongmo
75'
78'
Anthony Correia
🔁Song Min-kyuout: Pablo Ruan
78'
José Vitor Lima Cardoso
80'
⚽Matchoi Djalóassist: Pablo Ruan
86'
Matheus dos Santos Dias
90'
90'
🔁Soufiane Messeguemout: Mohamed Bouldini

Match stats — Nacional vs Academico Viseu

51%Possession49%
19Shots11
6On target6
6Corners5
1.17xG0.65

Goals against chances

Nacional1 from 1.17 xGabout what the chances were worth
Academico Viseu0 from 0.65 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nacional 4-3-3
  • 1Renato BellucciG
  • 7M. JensenD
  • 33Francisco GonçalvesD
  • 38Zé VitorD
  • 21W. KokoloD
  • 8Miguel BaezaM
  • 6Matheus DiasM
  • 15C. LabidiM
  • 11S. GavrielF
  • 29N. KaderF
  • 12Song Min-KyuF
Substitutes
  • 99Pablo RuanF
  • 9A. ObandoF
  • 17F. NavaF
  • 50KevynG
  • 5José GomesD
  • 13João GonçalvesG
  • 14Ivanildo FernandesD
  • 31D. DongmoM
  • 20Matchoi DjalóM
Coach: João Henriques
Academico Viseu 4-2-3-1
  • 98EwertonG
  • 75RobinhoD
  • 41A. CorreiaD
  • 2N. MichelisD
  • 3Miguel BrauD
  • 7Luís SilvaM
  • 14S. MesseguemM
  • 31João GuilhermeM
  • 8C. KahramanM
  • 22Nils MortimerM
  • 33André ClóvisF
Substitutes
  • 6André CeitilM
  • 21Tomás DomingosD
  • 18C. FerreiraM
  • 82H. GamborD
  • 47L. GohiF
  • 57G. CostaD
  • 5Pedro BarcelosD
  • 9M. BouldiniF
Coach: Bruno Pinheiro

Form going into Nacional vs Academico Viseu

Nacional

Primeira Liga

  • L0-1away to Arouca1 November 2026
  • W1-0SC Braga25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Rio Ave11 October 2026
  • L0-4Famalicao19 September 2026

Academico Viseu

Primeira Liga

  • W2-1Rio Ave1 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Sporting CP25 October 2026
  • W2-1Estoril10 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Estrela20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Nacional failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Nacional conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Academico Viseu won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Academico Viseu scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Academico Viseu conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Nacional113171119-810
6Academico Viseu116231513+220

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nacional vs Academico Viseu

  • 9 March 2024Nacional 1–1 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
  • 29 October 2023Academico Viseu 1–1 NacionalSegunda Liga
  • 28 May 2023Nacional 3–2 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
  • 21 January 2023Academico Viseu 1–1 NacionalSegunda Liga
  • 7 May 2022Nacional 1–2 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
  • 29 December 2021Academico Viseu 1–4 NacionalSegunda Liga

The full Nacional vs Academico Viseu record →

Leading scorers: Nacional and Academico Viseu

Nacional

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Academico Viseu

GoalsAssists

  • André Clóvis51
  • S. Messeguem31
  • João Guilherme30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nacional beat Academico Viseu 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Academico Viseu at 45% and given a win for Nacional 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Matchoi Djaló 86' for Nacional. On expected goals it finished 1.17–0.65.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nacional a 35.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 26.6% after a win, 34.7% after a draw, 39.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.6%, 8.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Nacional v Academico Viseu has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 30% / 27% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 27% / 28% / 45%: the biggest move is Nacional's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Nacional win27%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Academico Viseu win45%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.