Famalicao vs Arouca Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Famalicao 1-0 Arouca.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Famalicao, 29% draw, 33% Arouca — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Famalicao at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Famalicao vs Arouca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25L. CarevićG
- 2Gustavo GarciaD
- 15Víctor RofinoD
- 4F. van BreemenD
- 28Pedro FranciscoD
- 6T. van de LooiM
- 14Mathias De AmorimM
- 18R. BeneyM
- 10Pedro SantosM
- 7SorrisoM
- 70G. KoutsiasF
- 8Marcos PeñaM
- 9U. AbubakarF
- 11Óscar ArandaF
- 23Gil DiasF
- 22GabrielG
- 72Juvenal Augusto Gomes CorreiaD
- 24Mathis JangealM
- 19Paulo MoreiraM
- 3L. RealpeD
- 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
- 15Javi SánchezD
- 3José FontánD
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 6E. van EeM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 21Mateo FloresM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 17BarberoF
- 37Mario ClimentD
- 10Pablo GozálbezM
- 14Lee Hyun-JuM
- 24B. MansillaF
- 9F. MayuluF
- 4Diogo MonteiroD
- 23D. NandínF
- 5B. PopovićD
- 20G. RukavinaF
Form going into Famalicao vs Arouca
Famalicao
Primeira Liga
- L0-3away to SC Braga1 November 2026
- W4-0away to Rio Ave25 October 2026
- L1-4Alverca12 October 2026
- W4-0away to Nacional19 September 2026
Arouca
Primeira Liga
- W1-0Nacional1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Alverca24 October 2026
- W1-0Estrela11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Sporting CP19 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Famalicao had three goals or more.
- Famalicao scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arouca went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Arouca scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Arouca won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Famalicao vs Arouca
- 22 July 2026Famalicao 0–0 AroucaFriendlies Clubs
- 6 March 2026Famalicao 1–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 5 October 2025Arouca 1–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 5 April 2025Arouca 1–2 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 9 November 2024Famalicao 0–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 23 February 2024Arouca 3–2 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Famalicao and Arouca
Famalicao
GoalsAssists
- G. Koutsias50
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Famalicao beat Arouca 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Famalicao at 38%. The goal: Paulo Moreira 90+6' for Famalicao. On expected goals it finished 0.82–0.40.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.