SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SC Paderborn 07 2-2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% SC Paderborn 07, 29% draw, 38% Eintracht Frankfurt — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Eintracht Frankfurt at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 15N. NollG
- 21J. ter HorstD
- 25T. SchellerD
- 22M. HansenD
- 17L. CurdaM
- 6T. BaackM
- 5S. CastañedaM
- 40G. VidovićM
- 23R. ObermairM
- 2Ruben MüllerF
- 30S. MarinoF
- 20F. GötzeD
- 29C. LippmannD
- 9R. PhilippeF
- 18M. PieringerF
- 1M. SchubertG
- 3Jonah Benedict StickerD
- 27S. TiggesF
- 28L. UlrichM
- 38D. ZeitlerF
- 1N. AtuboluG
- 7A. KnauffD
- 4R. KochD
- 3L. BrassierD
- 2Elias BaumD
- 25R. OnyedikaM
- 15N. Aséko NkiliM
- 20R. DōanM
- 42C. UzunM
- 8F. ChaïbiM
- 9J. BurkardtF
- 40Kauã SantosG
- 37J. MaluzeD
- 35M. PimpongF
- 23N. IlicevicM
- 6O. HøjlundM
- 11Y. EbnoutalibF
- 34N. CollinsD
- 22T. ChandlerD
- 31L. ArrhovM
Form going into SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
SC Paderborn 07
Bundesliga
- D0-0away to Borussia Mönchengladbach31 October 2026
- W1-0Hamburger SV24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Werder Bremen17 October 2026
- L0-2VfB Stuttgart10 October 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga
- W3-1Hamburger SV1 November 2026
- L0-1away to Borussia Dortmund24 October 2026
- W1-01. FC Köln16 October 2026
- L0-6away to RB Leipzig10 October 2026
What these results say
- SC Paderborn 07 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for SC Paderborn 07 had two goals or fewer.
- Eintracht Frankfurt conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- 27 June 2020Eintracht Frankfurt 3–2 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- 22 December 2019SC Paderborn 07 2–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 14 March 2015Eintracht Frankfurt 4–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- 19 October 2014SC Paderborn 07 3–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 26 February 2012SC Paderborn 07 4–2 Eintracht Frankfurt2. Bundesliga
- 28 August 2011Eintracht Frankfurt 0–0 SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt
SC Paderborn 07
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Eintracht Frankfurt
GoalsAssists
- Y. Ebnoutalib61
- J. Burkardt51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Eintracht Frankfurt at 38% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jonathan Burkardt 23' for Eintracht Frankfurt, Raphael Obermair 45' for SC Paderborn 07, Marvin Pieringer (penalty) 73' for SC Paderborn 07, Jonathan Burkardt 90+3' for Eintracht Frankfurt. Sent off: Elias Niklas Baum (Eintracht Frankfurt) 75'. On expected goals it finished 2.33–1.77.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave SC Paderborn 07 a 14.7% chance to finish in the bottom two: 10.5% after a win, 14.5% after a draw, 17.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 14.5%.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on SC Paderborn 07 v Eintracht Frankfurt has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 34% / 27% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 33% / 29% / 38%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.
- SC Paderborn 07 win33%▼ −1
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Eintracht Frankfurt win38%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.