7 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München Bundesliga prediction & result

Mewa Arena, Mainz
Referee: Robert Schroder
Full time1 – 2

Final score: FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayern München.

Before kick-off the model made it 15% FSV Mainz 05, 17% draw, 68% Bayern München — fair odds of 6.67, 5.88 and 1.47.

Most likely scoreline: 1-3.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bayern München at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FSV Mainz 050%Draw1%Bayern München99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽Joshua Kimmichassist: Harry Kane
•Lee Jae-Sung
44'
45'
🔁Manuel Neuerout: Jonas Urbig
57'
⚽Lennart Karlassist: Harry Kane
🔁Ransford Königsdörfferout: Phillip Tietz
63'
🔁Lee Jae-Sungout: Paul Nebel
63'
67'
🔁Lennart Karlout: Tom Bischof
67'
🔁Josip Stanišićout: Alphonso Davies
🔁Sheraldo Beckerout: Benedict Hollerbach
68'
🔁Silvan Widmerout: Rael Nakuzola
69'
76'
Konrad Laimer
🔁Anthony Caciout: Eric Martel
82'
86'
🔁Konrad Laimerout: Hiroki Ito
86'
🔁Joshua Kimmichout: Sacha Boey
⚽Phillip Tietzassist: Benedict Hollerbach
90+2'

Match stats — FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München

31%Possession69%
10Shots26
1On target9
7Corners8
0.64xG2.7

Goals against chances

FSV Mainz 051 from 0.64 xGabout what the chances were worth
Bayern München2 from 2.70 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
  • 27R. ZentnerG
  • 21D. da CostaD
  • 3F. GruberD
  • 48K. PotulskiD
  • 19A. CaciM
  • 10N. AmiriM
  • 6K. SanoM
  • 7Lee Jae-SungM
  • 30S. WidmerM
  • 11R. KönigsdörfferF
  • 23S. BeckerF
Substitutes
  • 9P. TietzF
  • 16S. BellD
  • 17B. HollerbachF
  • 24S. KawasakiM
  • 15L. MaloneyM
  • 5E. MartelM
  • 47R. NakuzolaD
  • 8P. NebelM
  • 1A. SchwolowG
Coach: U. Fischer
Bayern München 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. NeuerG
  • 27K. LaimerD
  • 2D. UpamecanoD
  • 4J. TahD
  • 44J. StanišićD
  • 6J. KimmichM
  • 45A. PavlovićM
  • 17M. OliseM
  • 42L. KarlM
  • 11N. BrownM
  • 9H. KaneF
Substitutes
  • 40J. UrbigG
  • 26S. UlreichG
  • 3Kim Min-JaeD
  • 21H. ItoD
  • 19A. DaviesD
  • 23S. BoeyD
  • 8T. BischofM
  • 46T. BinderF
Coach: V. Kompany

Form going into FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München

FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga

  • L1-4away to SV Elversberg30 October 2026
  • L2-3Werder Bremen24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to FC Schalke 0417 October 2026
  • L3-4Bayer Leverkusen10 October 2026

Bayern München

Bundesliga

  • D2-2Borussia Dortmund31 October 2026
  • W3-1away to SC Freiburg25 October 2026
  • W6-1RB Leipzig17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Augsburg10 October 2026

What these results say

  • FSV Mainz 05 scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FSV Mainz 05 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FSV Mainz 05 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bayern München went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Bayern München scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Bayern München conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12FSV Mainz 0593151819-110
1Bayern München9630299+2021

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München

  • 25 April 2026FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
  • 14 December 2025Bayern München 2–2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
  • 26 April 2025Bayern München 3–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
  • 14 December 2024FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
  • 30 October 2024FSV Mainz 05 0–4 Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal
  • 9 March 2024Bayern Munich 8–1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

The full FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München record →

Leading scorers: FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München

FSV Mainz 05

GoalsAssists

  • P. Tietz60
  • A. Caci33

Bayern München

GoalsAssists

  • M. Olise63
  • H. Kane48
  • L. Díaz41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bayern München won 2–1 at FSV Mainz 05. The model had made a win for Bayern München its most likely outcome, at 68%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goals: Joshua Kimmich 14' for Bayern München, Lennart Karl 57' for Bayern München, Phillip Tietz 90+2' for FSV Mainz 05. On expected goals it finished 0.64–2.70.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FSV Mainz 05 a 7.7% chance to finish in the bottom two: 4.2% after a win, 6.7% after a draw, 8.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.3%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.

For Bayern München the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 66.9% going in: 69.3% after a win, 63.2% after a draw, 58.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.3%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern München has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 18% / 19% / 63% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 15% / 17% / 68%: the biggest move is Bayern München's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. FSV Mainz 05 win15%▼ −3
  2. Draw17%▼ −2
  3. Bayern München win68%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.