Amarante
vs
Felgueiras 1932
Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Amarante 1-1 Felgueiras 1932.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Amarante, 28% draw, 31% Felgueiras 1932 — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Amarante 1.43, Felgueiras 1932 1.15.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Model insights: Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932
Has the model earned this number?
Amarante at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932
Amarante
Segunda Liga
- D1-1away to Academica7 November 2026
- W2-1FC Porto B31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Torreense26 October 2026
- L1-2Portimonense10 October 2026
- D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026
Felgueiras 1932
Segunda Liga
- D3-3Leixoes7 November 2026
- L2-3away to Tondela1 November 2026
- D2-2Lusitânia Lourosa25 October 2026
- L0-1away to Benfica B12 October 2026
- L1-2Penafiel12 September 2026
What these results say
- Amarante conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Amarante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amarante scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Amarante | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Felgueiras 1932 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932
- 2 February 2020Felgueiras 1932 3–5 AmaranteCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
- 1 September 2019Amarante 0–0 Felgueiras 1932Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
Leading scorers: Amarante and Felgueiras 1932
Amarante
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Cunha10
Felgueiras 1932
No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Amarante a 0% chance of the title and Felgueiras 1932 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Amarante a 36.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 28.8% after a win, 38.2% after a draw, 43.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 38.2%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
For Felgueiras 1932 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 33.4% going in: 24.8% after a win, 33.9% after a draw, 38.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 33.9%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Amarante v Felgueiras 1932 has moved
First published on 1 Nov at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Amarante's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Amarante win41%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Felgueiras 1932 win31%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amarante the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Amarante against 1.15 for Felgueiras 1932. Amarante's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.63 for Felgueiras 1932.
How the model reaches 41% for Amarante to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Amarante to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Amarante's ratings take away 1 point and Felgueiras 1932's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Amarante's ratings42%−1
- Felgueiras 1932's ratings41%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.