Regular Season - 11 · 15 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Portimonense vs Academica Segunda Liga prediction & result

Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Portimão
Referee: Bruno Miguel do Carmo Vieira
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Portimonense 0-0 Academica.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Portimonense, 29% draw, 35% Academica — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Portimonense 1.30, Academica 1.29.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Portimonense vs Academica

53%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 9%0-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

Portimonense at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Portimonense vs Academica

Portimonense

Segunda Liga

  • W1-0away to FC Porto B8 November 2026
  • D0-0Torreense31 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Sporting CP B24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Amarante10 October 2026
  • L0-2Tondela12 September 2026

Academica

Segunda Liga

  • D1-1Amarante7 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Vizela1 November 2026
  • W4-0Leixoes24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to União de Leiria11 October 2026
  • L0-3Benfica B11 September 2026

What these results say

  • Academica scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Portimonense10424710-314
6Academica105141613+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Portimonense vs Academica

  • 23 July 2021Portimonense 2–1 AcademicaTaça da Liga
  • 19 October 2019Academica 2–1 PortimonenseTaça de Portugal
  • 3 August 2019Portimonense 2–0 AcademicaTaça da Liga
  • 4 February 2017Portimonense 0–0 AcademicaSegunda Liga
  • 24 August 2016Academica 0–0 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
  • 2 April 2011Academica 1–0 PortimonensePrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Portimonense and Academica

Portimonense

GoalsAssists

  • Danio Djassi11
  • Welinton Júnior10

Academica

GoalsAssists

  • K. Zohi10
  • Leandro Silva10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Academica (sixth, with Portimonense tenth), while our numbers lean to Portimonense. Portimonense rate 0.51 in attack and 1.45 in defence, Academica 0.74 and 1.57 (lower is better in defence), so Portimonense have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Portimonense a 0.2% chance of the title and Academica 3.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Portimonense a 13.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.5% after a win, 12.5% after a draw, 17.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 12.5%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.

For Academica the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 20.0% going in: 23.7% after a win, 19.7% after a draw, 15.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 19.7%.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Portimonense v Academica has moved

First published on 1 Nov at 32% / 27% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Academica's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Portimonense win36%▲ +4
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Academica win35%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Portimonense Academica
0.51 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.74
1.45 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.57
1.30 Model expected goals (this match) 1.29

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Portimonense the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Portimonense against 1.29 for Academica. Portimonense's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.57 for Academica.

Portimonense carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.48 for Academica. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 36% for Portimonense to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Portimonense to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Portimonense's ratings take away 4 points and Academica's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Portimonense's ratings39%−4
  5. Academica's ratings36%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.