Regular Season - 11 · 15 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa Segunda Liga prediction

Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
Referee: Antonio Nobre

Our model says: Penafiel 2–1 Lusitânia Lourosa

The model makes it 55% Penafiel, 23% draw, 22% Lusitânia Lourosa — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).

Expected goals: Penafiel 2.16, Lusitânia Lourosa 1.19.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Penafiel's rating is built from 44 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Lusitânia Lourosa's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Penafiel are top on 22 points from 10 games; Lusitânia Lourosa are 4th on 19 points from 10 games — Segunda Liga.
  • Penafiel are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Chaves.
  • Lusitânia Lourosa are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Feirense.
  • Last 2 meetings: Penafiel 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 February 2026, ended Penafiel 2–0 Lusitânia Lourosa.

More Liga Portugal 2 predictions

All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa

62%
Both teams to score
65%
Over 2.5 goals
35%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Penafiel win Draw Lusitânia Lourosa win
  1. 2–110%
  2. 1–19%
  3. 2–08%
  4. 1–07%
  5. 3–17%
  6. 3–06%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Penafiel first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Penafiel at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa

Penafiel

Segunda Liga

  • W3-2away to Chaves7 November 2026
  • W1-0Feirense2 November 2026
  • W4-1away to Farense24 October 2026
  • L1-2AVS9 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Felgueiras 193212 September 2026

Lusitânia Lourosa

Segunda Liga

  • L0-1away to Feirense8 November 2026
  • D1-1Farense1 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Felgueiras 193225 October 2026
  • D1-1Chaves11 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Sporting CP B14 September 2026

What these results say

  • Penafiel scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Penafiel won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Penafiel conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lusitânia Lourosa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lusitânia Lourosa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lusitânia Lourosa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Penafiel107122210+1222
4Lusitânia Lourosa10541159+619

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Penafiel

Chance to finish in the top three · 69% today

Win 75%
Draw 67%
Defeat 59%

Lusitânia Lourosa

Chance to finish in the top three · 21% today

Win 29%
Draw 21%
Defeat 18%

From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa

  • 16 February 2026Penafiel 2–0 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
  • 13 September 2025Lusitânia Lourosa 0–0 PenafielSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa

Penafiel

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Lusitânia Lourosa

GoalsAssists

  • Mika Borges10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Penafiel a 35.3% chance of the title and Lusitânia Lourosa 4.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Penafiel v Lusitânia Lourosa has moved

First published on 1 Nov at 53% / 23% / 24% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 55% / 23% / 22%: the biggest move is Penafiel's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Penafiel win55%▲ +2
  2. Draw23%=
  3. Lusitânia Lourosa win22%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Penafiel Lusitânia Lourosa
0.85 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.67
1.48 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.56
2.16 Model expected goals (this match) 1.19

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Penafiel the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Penafiel against 1.19 for Lusitânia Lourosa. Penafiel's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.56 for Lusitânia Lourosa.

Penafiel carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.43 for Lusitânia Lourosa.

How the model reaches 55% for Penafiel to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Penafiel to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Penafiel's ratings add 5 points and Lusitânia Lourosa's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 55%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. Penafiel's ratings51%+5
  5. Lusitânia Lourosa's ratings55%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

PenafielLusitânia Lourosa
10Matches10
7W 1D 2LRecord5W 4D 1L
22 2.2 per gameGoals scored15 1.5 per game
10 1.0 per gameGoals conceded9 0.9 per game
3 of 10Clean sheets3 of 10
1 of 10Failed to score1 of 10
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
24 2.4 per gameYellow cards30 3.0 per game
2Red cards1
3-4-3 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 4×

Penafiel at home · Lusitânia Lourosa away

5Played5
3W 0D 2LRecord3W 1D 1L
8–4Goals for – against7–4
2 of 5Clean sheets2 of 5

League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda Liga matches this season: Penafiel 10, Lusitânia Lourosa 10.

Penafiel scored 634325
Lusitânia Lourosa conceded 142102

Penafiel score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Lusitânia Lourosa have let in 1 there.

Lusitânia Lourosa scored 035015
Penafiel conceded 101223

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Penafiel

Lusitânia Lourosa

  • vs Vizela29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 47%
  • at Benfica B6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 21%
  • vs Tondela12 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 43%
  • at Portimonense20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 33%
  • vs União de Leiria27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 44%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.