Regular Season - 11 · 15 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Tondela vs Farense Segunda Liga prediction & result

Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela
Referee: Vitor Miguel Oliveira Lopes
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Tondela 2-0 Farense.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Tondela, 27% draw, 28% Farense — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Tondela 1.66, Farense 1.19.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Tondela vs Farense

57%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%2-1 9%1-0 9%

Has the model earned this number?

Tondela at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Tondela vs Farense

Tondela

Segunda Liga

  • D1-1away to Sporting CP B8 November 2026
  • W3-2Felgueiras 19321 November 2026
  • L1-2away to AVS25 October 2026
  • W1-0Torreense10 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026

Farense

Segunda Liga

  • L2-3Benfica B8 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Lusitânia Lourosa1 November 2026
  • L1-4Penafiel24 October 2026
  • W2-1Feirense11 October 2026
  • W4-0Chaves4 October 2026

What these results say

  • Tondela scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Farense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Farense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Farense had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Tondela105141311+216
8Farense104331714+315

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tondela vs Farense

  • 27 September 2023Farense 1–0 TondelaTaça da Liga
  • 28 May 2023Farense 3–1 TondelaSegunda Liga
  • 22 January 2023Tondela 1–0 FarenseSegunda Liga
  • 15 May 2021Farense 1–0 TondelaPrimeira Liga
  • 30 January 2021Tondela 2–0 FarensePrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Tondela and Farense

Tondela

GoalsAssists

  • Cascavel10

Farense

GoalsAssists

  • Gonçalo Silva10
  • S. Singh10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tondela a 3.3% chance of the title and Farense 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tondela a 14.4% chance to finish in the top three: 17.2% after a win, 12.7% after a draw, 9.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.2%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

For Farense the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 10.6% going in: 14.8% after a win, 10.3% after a draw, 7.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.8%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Tondela v Farense has moved

First published on 1 Nov at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Tondela's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Tondela win45%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Farense win28%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Tondela Farense
0.67 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.67
1.47 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.52
1.66 Model expected goals (this match) 1.19

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Tondela the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Tondela against 1.19 for Farense. Tondela's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.52 for Farense.

Tondela carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.44 for Farense. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 45% for Tondela to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Tondela to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Tondela's ratings add 1 point and Farense's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Tondela's ratings45%+1
  4. Farense's ratings45%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.