Leixoes
vs
Chaves
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Leixoes 2–1 Chaves
The model makes it 52% Leixoes, 22% draw, 26% Chaves — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Leixoes 2.33, Chaves 1.53.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Leixoes's rating is built from 44 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Chaves's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Leixoes are 12th on 11 points from 10 games; Chaves are 17th on 8 points from 10 games — Segunda Liga.
- Leixoes have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Felgueiras 1932.
- Chaves have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Penafiel.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 1 win each, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Chaves 1–2 Leixoes.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leixoes vs Chaves
Has the model earned this number?
Leixoes at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Leixoes vs Chaves
Leixoes
Segunda Liga
- D3-3away to Felgueiras 19327 November 2026
- L1-2Sporting CP B31 October 2026
- L0-4away to Academica24 October 2026
- L1-2FC Porto B10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Torreense11 September 2026
Chaves
Segunda Liga
- L2-3Penafiel7 November 2026
- L1-3away to Benfica B31 October 2026
- W2-1Vizela23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lusitânia Lourosa11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Farense4 October 2026
What these results say
- Leixoes did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Leixoes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leixoes had three goals or more.
- Chaves conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chaves failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chaves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Leixoes | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Chaves | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Leixoes
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today
Chaves
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Leixoes vs Chaves
- 9 May 2026Chaves 1–2 LeixoesSegunda Liga
- 16 November 2025Leixoes 0–1 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 25 January 2025Leixoes 0–0 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 18 August 2024Chaves 0–0 LeixoesSegunda Liga
- 24 January 2022Leixoes 1–1 ChavesSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Leixoes and Chaves
Leixoes
No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Chaves
GoalsAssists
- André Rodrigues10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leixoes a 0.2% chance of the title and Chaves 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leixoes the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Leixoes against 1.53 for Chaves. Leixoes's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/2.02 for Chaves.
How the model reaches 52% for Leixoes to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Leixoes to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 4 points, Leixoes's ratings add 1 point and Chaves's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level48%+4
- Leixoes's ratings49%+1
- Chaves's ratings52%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Leixoes at home · Chaves away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Leixoes 10, Chaves 10.
Leixoes score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Chaves have let in 6 there.
Chaves score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Leixoes have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Leixoes
- at AVS28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 25%
- vs Feirense4 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 49%
- at Penafiel12 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 18%
- vs Farense20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 41%
- at Vizela27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 27%
Chaves
- at Maritimo21 Nov · Taça de Portugalwin 19%
- vs Tondela28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 36%
- at União de Leiria7 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 20%
- vs FC Porto B14 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 40%
- at Amarante20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 27%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.