17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Amed vs Konyaspor Süper Lig prediction & result

Diyarbakir Stadium
Referee: Ozan Ergun, Türkiye
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Amed 1-0 Konyaspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Amed, 22% draw, 18% Konyaspor — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Amed at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Amed97%Draw3%Konyaspor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
M. Ibrahimoglu
37'
D. Turuc
F. Soyalp
51'
🔁F. Soyalpout: G. Gul
63'
🔁R. Lutinout: A. T. Bulbul
63'
63'
🔁J. Mulekaout: Mostafa Mohamed
🔁G. Orbanout: M. Diagne
72'
74'
🔁D. Turucout: J. Dompe
74'
🔁D. Goncalvesout: E. Colley
80'
🔁M. Ibrahimogluout: E. Bardhi
⚽M. Diagneassist: D. Saba
86'
88'
A. Masuaku
🔁E. Krasniqiout: A. Cisse
89'
🔁D. Sabaout: C. Ustundag
89'

Match stats — Amed vs Konyaspor

52%Possession48%
13Shots4
4On target1
7Corners2
1.28xG0.22

Goals against chances

Amed1 from 1.28 xGabout what the chances were worth
Konyaspor0 from 0.22 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Amed 4-2-3-1
  • 40Alban LafontG
  • 7Ermal KrasniqiD
  • 21Mehmet YeşilD
  • 4David Robert BatesD
  • 17Umut MeraşD
  • 22Rayan RavelosonM
  • 8Furkan SoyalpM
  • 93Rayan LutinM
  • 91Dia SabaM
  • 10Samuel BalletM
  • 99Gift OrbanF
Substitutes
  • 81Ali Turap BülbülD
  • 18Gökhan GülM
  • 45Mbaye DiagneF
  • 33Amadou CisséD
  • 6Cem ÜstündagM
  • 27Burak BozanG
  • 47Kahraman DemirtaşD
  • 3Miraç AcerD
  • 97Berk KızıldemirM
Konyaspor 4-2-3-1
  • 13Bahadır Han GüngördüG
  • 17Yhoan AndzouanaD
  • 22Rayyan BaniyaD
  • 15Chidozie AwaziemD
  • 26Arthur MasuakuD
  • 77Melih İbrahimoğluM
  • 8Marko JevtovićM
  • 9Deniz TürüçM
  • 66Rajmund TóthM
  • 7Diogo GonçalvesM
  • 11Jackson MulekaF
Substitutes
  • 42Mostafa MohamedF
  • 19Ebrima ColleyF
  • 91Jean-Luc DompéF
  • 10Enis BardhiM
  • 1Deniz ErtaşG
  • 3Arif BoşlukD
  • 2Ahmet OğuzD
  • 41Da MataD
  • 16Ata YanıkD

Form going into Amed vs Konyaspor

Amed

Süper Lig

  • D2-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.10 October 2026

Konyaspor

Süper Lig

  • D0-0Başakşehir11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Amed117222815+1323
15Konyaspor11227614-88

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Amed and Konyaspor

Amed

GoalsAssists

  • G. Orban104
  • D. Sabia61
  • S. Ballet41

Konyaspor

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Amed beat Konyaspor 1–0. The model had made a win for Amed its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: M. Diagne 86' for Amed. On expected goals it finished 1.28–0.22.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Amed a 50.3% chance to finish in the top four: 53.1% after a win, 46.1% after a draw, 43.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.1%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

For Konyaspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.1% going in: 15.9% after a win, 23.4% after a draw, 27.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.1%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Amed v Konyaspor has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 55% / 25% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 60% / 22% / 18%: the biggest move is Amed's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Amed win60%▲ +5
  2. Draw22%▼ −3
  3. Konyaspor win18%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.