Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Fenerbahçe 3-0 Alanyaspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% Fenerbahçe, 21% draw, 15% Alanyaspor — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Fenerbahçe at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31EdersonG
- 27Nélson SemedoD
- 37Milan ŠkriniarD
- 15Nathan AkéD
- 22Levent MercanD
- 91N'Golo KantéM
- 6Mattéo GuendouziM
- 17İrfan Can KahveciM
- 11Mason GreenwoodM
- 70Oğuz AydınM
- 9Romelu LukakuF
- 7Kerem AktürkoğluF
- 3Archie BrownD
- 8Mert Hakan YandaşM
- 19Vedat MuriqiF
- 45Dorgeles NeneF
- 34Mert GünokG
- 14Yiğit Efe DemirD
- 21Kojo Peprah OppongD
- 28Bartuğ ElmazM
- 48Paulo VictorG
- 3Nuno LimaD
- 5Fidan AlitiD
- 20Fatih AksoyD
- 94Florent HadergjonajM
- 42Gaius MakoutaM
- 55Baran Ali GezekM
- 11Ruan Pereira DuarteM
- 16Hwang Ui-JoF
- 17Arda UsluoğluF
- 7Ibrahim KayaF
- 12Meschak EliaF
- 10Ianis HagiM
- 8Enes KeskinM
- 9Omar Ben AliF
- 58MaestroM
- 23Mert Furkan BayramG
- 4Bedirhan ÖzyurtD
- 88Yusuf ÖzdemirM
- 26İzzet ÇelikM
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
Fenerbahçe
Süper Lig
- W3-0away to Rizespor10 October 2026
Alanyaspor
Süper Lig
- D0-0Erzurumspor FK10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fenerbahçe | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 19 |
| 13 | Alanyaspor | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
- 18 January 2026Alanyaspor 2–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 17 September 2025Fenerbahçe 2–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 9 February 2025Alanyaspor 0–2 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 30 August 2024Fenerbahçe 3–0 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 11 February 2024Fenerbahçe 2–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 24 September 2023Alanyaspor 0–1 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- V. Muriqi71
- M. Greenwood62
- İ. Kahveci53
Alanyaspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fenerbahçe beat Alanyaspor 3–0. The model had made a win for Fenerbahçe its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: R. Lukaku 40' for Fenerbahçe, K. Akturkoglu 71' for Fenerbahçe, V. Muriqi 87' for Fenerbahçe. On expected goals it finished 3.77–0.99.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fenerbahçe a 29.5% chance to win the league: 31.3% after a win, 25.3% after a draw, 23.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.3%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
For Alanyaspor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.6% going in: 9.3% after a win, 5.7% after a draw, 4.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.5%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 55% / 25% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 64% / 21% / 15%: the biggest move is Fenerbahçe's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Fenerbahçe win64%▲ +9
- Draw21%▼ −4
- Alanyaspor win15%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.