17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Galatasaray Süper Lig prediction & result

Eryaman Stadium, Ankara
Referee: Resat Onur Coskunses, Türkiye
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0-1 Galatasaray.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 22% draw, 57% Galatasaray — fair odds of 4.76, 4.55 and 1.75.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Galatasaray at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

61'
🔁L. Saneout: R. Leao
61'
🔁B. Yilmazout: Y. Akgun
61'
🔁Gabriel Saraout: I. Gundogan
70'
🔁E. Elmaliout: I. Jakobs
🔁T. Gouveiaout: V. Orakpo
72'
🔁S. Ucanout: O. Ulgun
72'
77'
🔁R. Leaoout: D. Gul
🔁R. Luisout: G. Erdem
80'
88'
⚽I. Egribayat (OG)
90'
V. Osimhen
🔁O. Diabateout: P. Martor
90+1'
🔁F. Uzumout: S. Koita
90+1'

Match stats — Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Galatasaray

31%Possession69%
19Shots18
6On target4
9Corners10
1.16xG1.81

Goals against chances

Gençlerbirliği S.K.0 from 1.16 xGless than the chances were worth
Galatasaray1 from 1.81 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 4-1-4-1
  • 70İrfan Can EğribayatG
  • 88Fıratcan ÜzümD
  • 90Metehan BaltacıD
  • 6Dimitris GoutasD
  • 2ThalissonD
  • 42Ousmane DiabateM
  • 83Rafael LuisM
  • 48Salih UçanM
  • 10Franco TongyaM
  • 7Tiago GouveiaM
  • 9Pedro MendesF
Substitutes
  • 35Oğulcan ÜlgünM
  • 12Victor OrakpoF
  • 52Göktug ErdemM
  • 20Sekou KoitaF
  • 45Prince MartorF
  • 23Gökhan AkkanG
  • 53Ensar ÇavuşoğluD
  • 3Yiğit Hamza AydarD
  • 77Abdurrahim DursunD
Galatasaray 4-2-3-1
  • 1Uğurcan ÇakırG
  • 7Roland SallaiD
  • 6Davinson SánchezD
  • 42Abdülkerim BardakcıD
  • 17Eren ElmalıD
  • 99Mario LeminaM
  • 8Gabriel SaraM
  • 10Leroy SanéM
  • 83Aleksey BatrakovM
  • 53Barış Alper YılmazM
  • 45Victor OsimhenF
Substitutes
  • 20İlkay GündoğanM
  • 11Yunus AkgünF
  • 27Rafael LeãoF
  • 4Ismail JakobsD
  • 21Deniz GülF
  • 24Jankat YılmazG
  • 88Kazımcan KarataşD
  • 3El Chadaille BitshiabuD
  • 23Kaan AyhanD

Form going into Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Galatasaray

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Süper Lig

  • D2-2Amed10 October 2026

Galatasaray

Süper Lig

  • W3-1Kasımpaşa9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Gençlerbirliği S.K.113261221-911
1Galatasaray119112715+1228

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Galatasaray

  • 22 April 2026Galatasaray 0–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Türkiye Kupası
  • 18 April 2026Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2 GalatasaraySüper Lig
  • 22 November 2025Galatasaray 3–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
  • 22 February 2023Galatasaray 2–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Friendlies Clubs
  • 2 May 2021Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–2 GalatasaraySüper Lig
  • 9 January 2021Galatasaray 6–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig

The full Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Galatasaray record →

Leading scorers: Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Galatasaray

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Galatasaray

GoalsAssists

  • V. Osimhen93

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Galatasaray won 1–0 at Gençlerbirliği S.K.. The model had made a win for Galatasaray its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: I. Egribayat (own goal) 88' for Galatasaray. On expected goals it finished 1.16–1.81.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 24.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 16.8% after a win, 23.6% after a draw, 26.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.0%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

For Galatasaray the question was the chance to win the league, 31.7% going in: 34.3% after a win, 27.5% after a draw, 24.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.3%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Galatasaray has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 23% / 26% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 21% / 22% / 57%: the biggest move is Galatasaray's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Gençlerbirliği S.K. win21%▼ −2
  2. Draw22%▼ −4
  3. Galatasaray win57%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.