17 October 2026, 10:30 UTC

Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor Süper Lig prediction & result

Erzurum
Referee: Erdem Mertoglu, Türkiye
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Erzurumspor FK 2-0 Eyüpspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Erzurumspor FK, 31% draw, 25% Eyüpspor — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Erzurumspor FK at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Erzurumspor FK99%Draw1%Eyüpspor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Z. Jules
⚽M. Cardosoassist: G. Giorbelidze
19'
•M. Cardoso
37'
⚽E. Tozluassist: M. Yumlu
47'
55'
🔁B. Boutobbaout: L. Pintor
55'
🔁K. Michalakout: T. Ulvan
67'
🔁Y. Barasiout: M. Demir
67'
🔁C. Raux Yaoout: A. Sabiri
🔁M. Cardosoout: I. Diabate
71'
🔁E. Tozluout: G. Kerk
80'
🔁E. Owusuout: S. Akgun
80'
82'
🔁I. Taskinout: D. Costa
🔁M. Rodriguezout: C. Bayrak
89'
🔁G. Giorbelidzeout: L. Agyekum
89'

Match stats — Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor

42%Possession58%
7Shots10
3On target4
3Corners2
1.23xG0.44

Goals against chances

Erzurumspor FK2 from 1.23 xGmore than the chances were worth
Eyüpspor0 from 0.44 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Erzurumspor FK 5-3-2
  • 1Ertuğrul TaşkıranG
  • 53Orhan OvacıklıD
  • 4Amar GerxhaliuD
  • 22Mustafa YumluD
  • 18Nihad MujakićD
  • 15Guram GiorbelidzeD
  • 6Brandon BaiyeM
  • 42Elisha OwusuM
  • 65Martín RodríguezM
  • 20Miguel CardosoF
  • 10Eren TozluF
Substitutes
  • 19Ibrahim DiabatéF
  • 8Sefa AkgünM
  • 9Gyrano KerkF
  • 23Cengizhan BayrakD
  • 77Lawrence AgyekumM
  • 31Matija OrbanićG
  • 3Yakup KırtayD
  • 99Mustafa FettahogluF
  • 21Emirhan AcarM
Eyüpspor 3-4-2-1
  • 1Emre BilginG
  • 5Jawad El YamiqD
  • 4Seyfettin Anıl YaşarD
  • 33Zak JulesD
  • 77Konrad MichalakM
  • 88Chandrel MassangaM
  • 28Taşkın IlterM
  • 21Simone GiordanoM
  • 98Bilal BoutobbaF
  • 15Charles-Andre Raux YaoF
  • 9Yusuf BarasıF
Substitutes
  • 7Talha ÜlvanD
  • 11Lenny PintorF
  • 70Mete DemirF
  • 10Abdelhamid SabiriM
  • 8David CostaM
  • 31Horațiu MoldovanG
  • 27Yiğit DemirD
  • 42Berhan SatliD
  • 18Hamza AkmanM

Form going into Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor

Erzurumspor FK

Süper Lig

  • D0-0away to Alanyaspor10 October 2026

Eyüpspor

Süper Lig

  • L0-4Göztepe12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Erzurumspor FK114251017-714
18Eyüpspor111010330-273

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor

  • 11 May 2024Erzurumspor FK 0–4 Eyüpspor1. Lig
  • 25 December 2023Eyüpspor 3–0 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
  • 3 April 2023Eyüpspor 1–1 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
  • 30 October 2022Erzurumspor FK 0–1 Eyüpspor1. Lig
  • 17 February 2022Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Eyüpspor1. Lig
  • 18 September 2021Eyüpspor 0–1 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig

The full Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor record →

The result against the call

Erzurumspor FK beat Eyüpspor 2–0. The model had made a win for Erzurumspor FK its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M. Cardoso 19' for Erzurumspor FK, E. Tozlu 47' for Erzurumspor FK. On expected goals it finished 1.23–0.44.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Erzurumspor FK a 43.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 36.5% after a win, 45.7% after a draw, 51.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.5%, 6.5 points lower than before the match.

For Eyüpspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 88.3% going in: 83.4% after a win, 89.4% after a draw, 91.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 91.1%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Erzurumspor FK v Eyüpspor has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 39% / 31% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 31% / 25%: the biggest move is Erzurumspor FK's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Erzurumspor FK win44%▲ +5
  2. Draw31%=
  3. Eyüpspor win25%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.