18 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK Süper Lig prediction & result

Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Istanbul
Referee: Alpaslan Sen, Türkiye
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Başakşehir 2-1 Gaziantep FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% Başakşehir, 22% draw, 16% Gaziantep FK — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Başakşehir at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Başakşehir97%Draw3%Gaziantep FK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Shomurodov
9'
•I. Brnic
30'
36'
O. Ak
S. Kharebashvili
45+3'
🔁S. Kharebashviliout: O. Sahiner
46'
46'
🔁V. Gidadoout: A. Maxim
46'
🔁A. Syllaout: K. Calhanoglu
J. Kaluzinski
51'
57'
🔁T. Stewartout: S. Dursun
🔁J. Kaluzinskiout: U. Gunes
57'
🔁A. Skov Olsenout: Y. Sari
57'
58'
D. Camara
64'
🔁D. Camaraout: K. Gassama
66'
⚽S. Dursunassist: K. Kozlowski
🔁U. Bozokout: B. Yildirim
72'
🔁I. Brnicout: E. Visca
72'
O. Ba
75'
U. Gunes
79'
80'
D. Sorescu
⚽U. Gunesassist: E. Shomurodov
81'
85'
K. Kozlowski
85'
🔁L. Perezout: S. Destici
87'
S. Dursun
90+5'
O. Ak

Match stats — Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK

50%Possession50%
14Shots12
6On target4
4Corners5
2.03xG1.13

Goals against chances

Başakşehir2 from 2.03 xGabout what the chances were worth
Gaziantep FK1 from 1.13 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Başakşehir 4-2-3-1
  • 16Muhammed ŞengezerG
  • 33Michał KarbownikD
  • 23Emin BayramD
  • 27Ousseynou BaD
  • 38Saba KharebashviliD
  • 8Olivier KemenM
  • 18Jakub KałuzińskiM
  • 70Andreas Skov OlsenM
  • 14Eldor ShomurodovM
  • 77Ivan BrnićM
  • 17Umut BozokF
Substitutes
  • 42Ömer Ali ŞahinerM
  • 7Yusuf SarıF
  • 20Umut GüneşM
  • 91Bertuğ YıldırımF
  • 10Edin VišćaM
  • 98Deniz DilmenG
  • 15Hamza GürelerD
  • 11Abbosbek FayzullaevM
  • 4Onur ErgünM
Gaziantep FK 4-4-2
  • 25Kacper TobiaszG
  • 2Luis PérezD
  • 4Arda KızıldağD
  • 14Myenty AbenaD
  • 21Abakar SyllaD
  • 18Deian SorescuM
  • 8Gidado Victor Ntino-EmoM
  • 61Ogün ÖzçiçekM
  • 3Drissa CamaraM
  • 9Trivante StewartF
  • 10Kacper KozłowskiF
Substitutes
  • 23Kerim ÇalhanoğluD
  • 44Alexandru MaximM
  • 19Serdar DursunF
  • 17Karamba GassamaM
  • 77Sabahattin DesticiD
  • 35Ataberk DadakdenizG
  • 5Efe SarıkayaD
  • 7Juninho BacunaM
  • 22Sontje HansenF

Form going into Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK

Başakşehir

Süper Lig

  • D0-0away to Konyaspor11 October 2026

Gaziantep FK

Süper Lig

  • L0-3Çorum FK11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Başakşehir115241917+217
16Gaziantep FK11227919-108

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK

  • 16 May 2026Gaziantep FK 1–2 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • 22 December 2025Başakşehir 5–1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
  • 20 April 2025Başakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
  • 23 November 2024Gaziantep FK 3–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • 24 February 2024Gaziantep FK 0–2 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • 7 October 2023Başakşehir 2–0 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig

The full Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK record →

Leading scorers: Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK

Başakşehir

GoalsAssists

  • E. Shomurodov81

Gaziantep FK

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Başakşehir beat Gaziantep FK 2–1. The model had made a win for Başakşehir its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: E. Shomurodov 9' for Başakşehir, S. Dursun 66' for Gaziantep FK, U. Gunes 81' for Başakşehir. Sent off: O. Ak (Gaziantep FK) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 2.03–1.13.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Başakşehir a 16.2% chance to finish in the top four: 18.1% after a win, 12.6% after a draw, 9.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.1%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

For Gaziantep FK the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 31.4% going in: 22.6% after a win, 30.1% after a draw, 33.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.4%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 62% / 22% / 16%: the biggest move is Başakşehir's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. Başakşehir win62%▲ +10
  2. Draw22%▼ −4
  3. Gaziantep FK win16%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.