24 October 2026, 01:10 UTC

Junior vs Águilas Doradas Primera A prediction & result

Barranquilla
Referee: S. Camargo
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Junior 1-0 Águilas Doradas.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Junior, 26% draw, 24% Águilas Doradas — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Junior at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Junior97%Draw3%Águilas Doradas0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

D. Socarras
28'
J. Pena
30'
35'
S. Rodriguez
⚽D. Caicedo
45'
46'
🔁S. Rodriguezout: A. Carreno
46'
🔁M. Ramirezout: E. Arizalas
🔁L. Murielout: G. Paiva
61'
🔁F. S. Angel Bernalout: J. Rivas
61'
70'
🔁I. Rojasout: J. Roa
70'
🔁N. Lara Vasquezout: J. Garcia
G. Celis
70'
🔁D. Caicedoout: J. Canchimbo
71'
🔁C. Barriosout: B. Castrillon
71'
84'
A. Carreno
85'
🔁A. Ricaurteout: J. E. Avalo Trejos
🔁Y. Charaout: H. Rivera
86'

Match stats — Junior vs Águilas Doradas

35%Possession65%
11Shots7
4On target1
4Corners7
1.29xG0.48

Goals against chances

Junior1 from 1.29 xGabout what the chances were worth
Águilas Doradas0 from 0.48 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Junior 4-1-4-1
  • 1Mauro SilveiraG
  • 34Daniel SocarrasD
  • 98Jermein PeñaD
  • 5Daniel RiveraD
  • 26Yeison SuárezD
  • 80Fabián ÁngelM
  • 77Cristian BarriosM
  • 8Yimmi CharáM
  • 28Guillermo CelisM
  • 25Déiber CaicedoM
  • 10Luis MurielF
Substitutes
  • 22Jesús RivasM
  • 9Guillermo PaivaF
  • 88Bryan CastrillónF
  • 21Joel CanchimboF
  • 7Harold RiveraM
  • 30Jefersson MartínezG
  • 23Pablo OrtízD
  • 38Andrés SchmalbachM
  • 18Kevin PérezF
Águilas Doradas 4-4-2
  • 1Jorge SotoG
  • 26Dylan LozanoD
  • 4Andrés MosqueraD
  • 28Sebastián RodríguezD
  • 30Nicolás LaraD
  • 16Matías RamírezM
  • 19Frank LozanoM
  • 6Iván RojasM
  • 32Javier MenaM
  • 8Andrés RicaurteF
  • 9Anthony VásquezF
Substitutes
  • 7Eduar ArízalasF
  • 18Andrés CarreñoF
  • 2John GarcíaD
  • 25Juan Camilo RoaM
  • 24Juan ÁvaloM
  • 12Juan HurtadoG
  • 20Alberto HigginsD
  • 27Carlos LondoñoM
  • 29Tomás BlandónF

Form going into Junior vs Águilas Doradas

Junior

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Deportivo Cali19 October 2026
  • D1-1Deportivo Pereira14 October 2026
  • D2-2Internacional de Bogota10 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Bucaramanga4 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Atletico Nacional1 October 2026

Águilas Doradas

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Deportes Tolima18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Bucaramanga13 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Alianza Valledupar9 October 2026
  • W2-0Jaguares3 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Deportivo Cali28 September 2026

What these results say

  • Junior did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Junior scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Junior conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Águilas Doradas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Águilas Doradas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Junior195772627-122
11Águilas Doradas196762222025

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Junior vs Águilas Doradas

  • 11 April 2026Águilas Doradas 0–3 JuniorPrimera A
  • 19 July 2025Águilas Doradas 2–3 JuniorPrimera A
  • 2 February 2025Junior 2–2 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
  • 23 September 2024Junior 3–4 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
  • 8 March 2024Águilas Doradas 0–2 JuniorPrimera A
  • 29 November 2023Águilas Doradas 1–1 JuniorPrimera A

Leading scorers: Junior and Águilas Doradas

Junior

GoalsAssists

  • L. Muriel163

Águilas Doradas

GoalsAssists

  • Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto110

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Junior beat Águilas Doradas 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Junior at 50%. The goal: D. Caicedo 45' for Junior. On expected goals it finished 1.29–0.48.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Junior a 6.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 2.3% after a win, 10.2% after a draw, 14.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.3%, 4.5 points lower than before the match.

For Águilas Doradas the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 22.4% going in: 42.2% after a win, 21.9% after a draw, 14.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.3%, 8.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Junior v Águilas Doradas has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 54% / 25% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 50% / 26% / 24%: the biggest move is Junior's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Junior win50%▼ −4
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Águilas Doradas win24%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.