Cagliari vs Bologna Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Cagliari 0-2 Bologna.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Cagliari, 32% draw, 34% Bologna — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Cagliari at 34%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cagliari vs Bologna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. CaprileG
- 2Zé PedroD
- 14A. DeiolaD
- 15J. RodríguezD
- 33A. ObertD
- 4A. RomanoM
- 6H. WinksM
- 8M. AdopoM
- 79Y. MassolinM
- 70D. MaldiniM
- 31P. MendyF
- 32Ivan Stoyanov SulevM
- 39A. FaderaF
- 24G. AurelioD
- 20R. CiervoF
- 10J. FazziniM
- 21R. GagliardiniM
- 9Kevin CarlosF
- 22R. KoflerD
- 27J. LitetaM
- 1Ł. SkorupskiG
- 36M. DarmianD
- 16N. CasaleD
- 3A. TheateD
- 20N. ZorteaM
- 19L. FergusonM
- 4T. PobegaM
- 33Juan MirandaM
- 10F. BernardeschiF
- 21J. OdgaardF
- 28N. CambiaghiF
- 6N. MoroM
- 25M. PessinaG
- 41M. VitíkD
- 11S. MbangulaF
- 18M. LibraM
- 14T. HeggemD
- 72U. HapponenG
- 5E. HellandD
- 22J. EnemF
Form going into Cagliari vs Bologna
Cagliari
Serie A
- L0-4away to Monza19 October 2026
Bologna
Serie A
- L1-3Inter17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bologna vs Cagliari
Bologna and Cagliari have met 7 times in the records we hold, Bologna has won 5 of them to Cagliari's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Bologna won the last one 2–0 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 |
| Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Serie ACagliari 0–2 Bologna - 3 May 2026
Serie ABologna 0–0 Cagliari - 19 Oct 2025
Serie ACagliari 0–2 Bologna - 2 Mar 2025
Serie ABologna 2–1 Cagliari - 29 Oct 2024
Serie ACagliari 0–2 Bologna - 14 Jan 2024
Serie ACagliari 2–1 Bologna - 2 Sep 2023
Serie ABologna 2–1 Cagliari
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Bologna's attack rates 34% above Cagliari's, and Bologna concede 4% fewer than Cagliari. That gives Bologna the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Cagliari and Bologna
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini50
Bologna
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bologna won 2–0 at Cagliari. The goals: Nicolo Casale 57' for Bologna, Federico Bernardeschi (penalty) 80' for Bologna. On expected goals it finished 0.44–1.64.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cagliari a 4.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 2.5% after a win, 4.8% after a draw, 6.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.1%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
For Bologna the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 16.1% going in: 11.8% after a win, 16.3% after a draw, 19.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.8%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Cagliari v Bologna has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 38% / 32% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 34% / 32% / 34%: the biggest move is Cagliari's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Cagliari win34%▼ −4
- Draw32%=
- Bologna win34%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.