24 October 2026, 17:45 UTC

Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Huancayo, Huancayo
Referee: Kevin Ortega, Peru
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Sport Huancayo 4-1 Alianza Atletico.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Sport Huancayo, 25% draw, 31% Alianza Atletico — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sport Huancayo at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sport Huancayo99%Draw1%Alianza Atletico0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jean Franco Falconí
5'
⚽Nahuel Lujanassist: Javier Sanguinetti
7'
⚽Daniel porozoassist: Javier Sanguinetti
30'
⚽Diego Carabañoassist: Javier Sanguinetti
37'
Diego Carabaño
37'
45'
🔁Jose Lujanout: Jimmy Perez
45'
🔁Hernan Lupuout: Juan Delgado
45'
🔁Jairo Molinaout: José María Ingratti
51'
⚽Cristian Penilla (pen)
58'
🔁Stefano Fernándezout: Erick Perleche
🔁Diego Carabañoout: Rick Campodonico
62'
🔁Daniel porozoout: Ronal Huaccha
62'
63'
Erick Perleche
🔁Ricardo Salcedoout: Aldo Quinonez
72'
🔁Nahuel Lujanout: E. Villar
72'
🔁Javier Sanguinettiout: Juan Gimenez
78'
78'
🔁Guillermo Lariosout: Jorge del Castillo

Match stats — Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico

53%Possession47%
19Shots15
6On target4
6Corners5
2.04xG1.11

Goals against chances

Sport Huancayo4 from 2.04 xGmore than the chances were worth
Alianza Atletico1 from 1.11 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sport Huancayo 4-2-3-1
  • 12Á. ZamudioG
  • 16J. FalconíD
  • 26M. GaonaD
  • 70J. ValoyesD
  • 2Omar Alberto Labrador GutierrezD
  • 8D. CarabañoM
  • 22R. SalcedoM
  • 23P. MagallanesM
  • 10N. LujánM
  • 11Javier Andrés SanguinettiM
  • 97D. PorozoF
Substitutes
  • 7R. CampodónicoM
  • 29A. CcorahuaG
  • 17J. GiménezF
  • 19R. HuacchaF
  • 9J. MartínezF
  • 92Y. MurilloD
  • 91A. QuiñónezM
  • 28J. RostaingD
  • 38E. VillarM
Coach: R. Pellejero
Alianza Atletico 4-1-4-1
  • 31S. RivadeneyraG
  • 16S. FernándezD
  • 2R. SuarezD
  • 6J. LujánD
  • 19J. MendietaD
  • 25W. GuzmánM
  • 11G. LariosM
  • 15H. LupúM
  • 10Germán DíazM
  • 17C. PenillaM
  • 29J. MolinaF
Substitutes
  • 40J. QuiñónesD
  • 20Jimmy PérezM
  • 95D. PrietoG
  • 21E. PerlecheD
  • 27J. IngrattiF
  • 24A. GordilloD
  • 8F. FloresM
  • 37J. DelgadoM
  • 22J. del CastilloM
Coach: F. Urciuoli

Form going into Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico

Sport Huancayo

Primera División

  • W2-1Cusco16 October 2026

Alianza Atletico

Primera División

  • L1-4Universitario18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Sport Huancayo33155134849-150
9Alianza Atletico33147124948+149

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico

  • 3 May 2026Alianza Atletico 4–1 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
  • 18 July 2025Alianza Atletico 0–0 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
  • 7 February 2025Sport Huancayo 2–1 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
  • 5 August 2024Alianza Atletico 1–1 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
  • 23 February 2024Sport Huancayo 4–0 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
  • 31 July 2023Sport Huancayo 2–0 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División

Leading scorers: Sport Huancayo and Alianza Atletico

Sport Huancayo

GoalsAssists

  • Javier Andrés Sanguinetti105

Alianza Atletico

GoalsAssists

  • C. Penilla95

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sport Huancayo beat Alianza Atletico 4–1. The model had made a win for Sport Huancayo its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jean Franco Falconí 5' for Sport Huancayo, Nahuel Lujan 7' for Sport Huancayo, Daniel porozo 30' for Sport Huancayo, Diego Carabaño 37' for Sport Huancayo, Cristian Penilla (penalty) 51' for Alianza Atletico. On expected goals it finished 2.04–1.11.

How the call on Sport Huancayo v Alianza Atletico has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 42% / 26% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 25% / 31%: the biggest move is Sport Huancayo's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Sport Huancayo win44%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Alianza Atletico win31%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.