26 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

Juventude vs Nautico Recife Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Caxias do Sul
Referee: Bruno Mota Correia
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Juventude 4-0 Nautico Recife.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Juventude, 25% draw, 18% Nautico Recife — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Juventude at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Juventude99%Draw1%Nautico Recife0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Fabio limaassist: Safira
7'
Fabio lima
8'
26'
Jean Carlos
Gabriel Barbosa Pinheiro
29'
⚽Raí da Silva Pessanha
40'
45'
🔁Luiz Felipeout: Samuel
⚽Aderlanassist: Gabriel Pires
50'
53'
Ryan Santos
54'
🔁Ryan Santosout: Wanderson Camelo Viana
🔁Fabio limaout: Luis Amarilla
58'
🔁sam rodrigoout: Cristian Chagas Tarouco
59'
66'
🔁Benjamín Borasiout: Victor Andrade
🔁Raí da Silva Pessanhaout: Lucas Mineiro
72'
79'
🔁Jean Carlosout: Paulo Sérgio
🔁Marcos Pauloout: Ray Breno Silva Valentim
79'
79'
🔁Derek Freitas Ribeiroout: Kauan Almeida da Costa
🔁Gabriel Piresout: Juan
79'
89'
Wanderson Camelo Viana
90+3'
Victor Andrade
⚽Luis Amarillaassist: Safira
90+6'

Match stats — Juventude vs Nautico Recife

51%Possession49%
24Shots15
11On target4
4Corners3
3.31xG1.82

Goals against chances

Juventude4 from 3.31 xGmore than the chances were worth
Nautico Recife0 from 1.82 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Juventude 3-4-3
  • 93JandreiG
  • 34Rodrigo SamD
  • 4MessiasD
  • 97Gabriel PinheiroD
  • 13AderlanM
  • 75RaíM
  • 29Gabriel PiresM
  • 16Diogo BarbosaM
  • 11Fábio LimaF
  • 25Alisson SafiraF
  • 10Marcos PauloF
Substitutes
  • 17M. CastroF
  • 18L. AmarillaF
  • 3TitiD
  • 30PatryckD
  • 26I. LyD
  • 6WadsonD
  • 70Juan ChristianF
  • 27RayF
  • 8Lucas MineiroM
Coach: Maurício Barbieri
Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
  • 55G. GuruceagaG
  • 93Reginaldo LopesD
  • 3AlbertoD
  • 23Igor FernandesD
  • 6RyanD
  • 27Luiz FelipeM
  • 8WendersonM
  • 24B. BorasiM
  • 10Jean CarlosM
  • 7ViníciusM
  • 72DerekF
Substitutes
  • 34WandersonD
  • 11Victor AndradeF
  • 9Paulo SérgioF
  • 60Luiz PauloD
  • 29Júnior TodinhoF
  • 5AuremirM
  • 16Luiz CláudioF
  • 19Kaua Almeida da CostaF
  • 1MurielG
Coach: Bruno Pivetti

Form going into Juventude vs Nautico Recife

Juventude

Serie B

  • D2-2away to Ceara17 October 2026

Nautico Recife

Serie B

  • D0-0away to Goias19 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Juventude38201175126+2571
15Nautico Recife381210164151-1046

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Juventude vs Nautico Recife

  • 5 July 2026Nautico Recife 0–0 JuventudeSerie B
  • 29 November 2020Juventude 1–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
  • 22 August 2020Nautico Recife 3–3 JuventudeSerie B
  • 22 September 2019Nautico Recife 2–1 JuventudeSerie C
  • 15 September 2019Juventude 2–1 Nautico RecifeSerie C
  • 24 October 2017Juventude 0–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B

Leading scorers: Juventude and Nautico Recife

Juventude

GoalsAssists

  • Raí105

Nautico Recife

GoalsAssists

  • Vinícius93

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Juventude beat Nautico Recife 4–0. The model had made a win for Juventude its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Fabio lima 7' for Juventude, Raí da Silva Pessanha 40' for Juventude, Aderlan 50' for Juventude, Luis Amarilla 90+6' for Juventude. On expected goals it finished 3.31–1.82.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Juventude a 59.5% chance to finish in the top two: 69.9% after a win, 46.0% after a draw, 32.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.9%, 10.4 points higher than before the match.

For Nautico Recife the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 3.7% going in: under 1% after a win, 1.9% after a draw, 4.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.9%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Juventude v Nautico Recife has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 59% / 23% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 57% / 25% / 18%: the biggest move is Juventude's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Juventude win57%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▲ +2
  3. Nautico Recife win18%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.