25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Palermo vs Carrarese Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo
Referee: Mattia Drigo
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Palermo 2-1 Carrarese.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Palermo, 26% draw, 20% Carrarese — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Palermo at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Palermo97%Draw3%Carrarese0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Luka Topalovic
⚽Dennis Johnsenassist: Hernani
26'
45'
🔁Luka Topalovicout: G. Marconi
🔁Filippo·Ranocchiaout: Luca Mazzitelli
61'
🔁Jacopo Segreout: Nahuel Estévez
61'
🔁Giangiacomo Magnaniout: Patryk Peda
65'
67'
🔁Jacopo Martiniout: Tommaso Rubino
68'
🔁Gabriele parlantiout: T. Guercio
74'
⚽Tommaso Rubinoassist: G. Marconi
⚽Dominic Vavassori
80'
🔁Dominic Vavassoriout: Alessandro Gabrielloni
82'
🔁Joel Pohjanpaloout: Mattia Bani
82'
89'
🔁Fabio Andreaout: Mattia Finotto
89'
🔁Matthias Braunöderout: Moustapha Cisse
90+3'
Filippo Oliana

Match stats — Palermo vs Carrarese

41%Possession59%
19Shots15
7On target4
5Corners7
1.93xG1.32

Goals against chances

Palermo2 from 1.93 xGabout what the chances were worth
Carrarese1 from 1.32 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Palermo 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. PerinG
  • 84T. CassandroD
  • 96G. MagnaniD
  • 32P. CeccaroniD
  • 3T. AugelloD
  • 8J. SegreM
  • 10F. RanocchiaM
  • 9D. VavassoriM
  • 23HernaniM
  • 17D. JohnsenM
  • 20J. PohjanpaloF
Substitutes
  • 12M. NespolaG
  • 29P. PedaD
  • 24N. EstévezM
  • 33A. BozzolanD
  • 13M. BaniD
  • 14M. FortinG
  • 99A. GabrielloniF
  • 6C. GomesM
  • 11E. GyasiD
Coach: F. Inzaghi
Carrarese 3-5-2
  • 1S. PizzignaccoG
  • 13F. RuggeriD
  • 6F. OlianaD
  • 33F. RealeD
  • 77G. ParlantiM
  • 18Nicolás SchiaviM
  • 23M. BraunöderM
  • 28J. MartiniM
  • 73J. RouhiM
  • 9F. AbiusoF
  • 17L. TopalovićF
Substitutes
  • 32M. FinottoF
  • 12G. GarofaniG
  • 78Tommaso GuercioD
  • 8Y. KhafiM
  • 5T. MacchioniD
  • 91G. MarconiF
  • 30N. RavagliaG
  • 41L. RomaniD
  • 10T. RubinoF
Coach: G. Pagliuca

Form going into Palermo vs Carrarese

Palermo

Serie B

  • W2-0away to Mantova17 October 2026

Carrarese

Serie B

  • W2-1Modena17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Palermo118302513+1227
17Carrarese11317914-510

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Palermo vs Carrarese

  • 8 March 2026Carrarese 0–1 PalermoSerie B
  • 29 November 2025Palermo 5–0 CarrareseSerie B
  • 13 May 2025Palermo 1–1 CarrareseSerie B
  • 7 December 2024Carrarese 1–0 PalermoSerie B

Leading scorers: Palermo and Carrarese

Palermo

GoalsAssists

  • D. Johnsen75
  • D. Vavassori61

Carrarese

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Palermo beat Carrarese 2–1. The model had made a win for Palermo its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Dennis Johnsen 26' for Palermo, Tommaso Rubino 74' for Carrarese, Dominic Vavassori 80' for Palermo. On expected goals it finished 1.93–1.32.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Palermo a 64.9% chance to finish in the top two: 67.9% after a win, 62.7% after a draw, 58.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.9%, 3 points higher than before the match.

For Carrarese the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.1% going in: 5.8% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 9.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.7%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Palermo v Carrarese has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 58% / 25% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is Palermo's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Palermo win54%▼ −4
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Carrarese win20%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.