25 October 2026, 16:15 UTC

Hellas Verona vs Pisa Serie B prediction & result

Verona
Referee: Niccolo Turrini
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Hellas Verona 1-1 Pisa.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Hellas Verona, 25% draw, 35% Pisa — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hellas Verona at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hellas Verona5%Draw90%Pisa5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Davide De Battistiout: Martin Frese
22'
🔁Grigoris Kastanosout: Tomas Suslov
45'
47'
Rosen Bozhinov
50'
Arturo Calabresi
⚽Edoardo Iannoniassist: Amin Sarr
51'
60'
🔁Arturo Calabresiout: Mehdi Léris
60'
🔁Simone Zanonout: Tommaso Marras
60'
🔁Andrea Petagnaout: Filippo Pittarello
🔁Amin Sarrout: Caleb Ekuban
69'
🔁Dailon Livramentoout: Paweł Dawidowicz
69'
69'
🔁Emanuele Raoout: Ichem Ferrah
🔁Tomas Suslovout: Nunzio Lella
79'
84'
⚽Tommaso Marras
90'
🔁Ichem Ferrahout: Gabriele Piccinini
Nunzio Lella
90+2'
90+5'
Gabriele Piccinini

Match stats — Hellas Verona vs Pisa

42%Possession58%
11Shots20
3On target4
4Corners8
0.69xG1.55

Goals against chances

Hellas Verona1 from 0.69 xGabout what the chances were worth
Pisa1 from 1.55 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hellas Verona 4-2-3-1
  • 34S. PerilliG
  • 4G. ZappaD
  • 5A. EdmundssonD
  • 28T. SlotsagerD
  • 71D. De BattistiD
  • 17A. Le BorgneM
  • 20G. KastanosM
  • 14D. LivramentoM
  • 44E. IannoniM
  • 9A. SarrM
  • 25D. MosqueraF
Substitutes
  • 19S. MulattieriF
  • 37N. CalabreseD
  • 70F. ChamD
  • 27P. DawidowiczD
  • 81C. EkubanF
  • 3M. FreseD
  • 21A. HarrouiM
  • 1N. LealiG
  • 23N. LellaM
Coach: M. Baroni
Pisa 3-4-2-1
  • 98A. ConfenteG
  • 33A. CalabresiD
  • 13A. PrimassoD
  • 2R. BozhinovD
  • 72S. ZanonM
  • 14F. LoyolaM
  • 29O. CorreiaM
  • 3S. AngoriM
  • 32S. MoreoM
  • 17E. RaoM
  • 37A. PetagnaF
Substitutes
  • 4A. CaraccioloD
  • 19Tomás EstevesD
  • 11I. FerrahM
  • 55G. LeoneM
  • 7M. LérisM
  • 23T. MarrasF
  • 36G. PiccininiM
  • 8F. PittarelloF
  • 1S. ScuffetG
Coach: P. Bianco

Form going into Hellas Verona vs Pisa

Hellas Verona

Serie B

  • D2-2Catanzaro16 October 2026

Pisa

Serie B

  • W3-1Cremonese17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Hellas Verona114431913+616
8Pisa114432017+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hellas Verona vs Pisa

  • 6 February 2026Hellas Verona 0–0 PisaSerie A
  • 18 October 2025Pisa 0–0 Hellas VeronaSerie A
  • 26 March 2017Hellas Verona 1–1 PisaSerie B
  • 25 October 2016Pisa 0–0 Hellas VeronaSerie B

Leading scorers: Hellas Verona and Pisa

Hellas Verona

GoalsAssists

  • D. Mosquera70

Pisa

GoalsAssists

  • F. Pittarello41
  • M. Tramoni35
  • T. Marras31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hellas Verona and Pisa drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Hellas Verona at 40% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Edoardo Iannoni 51' for Hellas Verona, Tommaso Marras 84' for Pisa. Sent off: Nunzio Lella (Hellas Verona) 90+2'. On expected goals it finished 0.69–1.55.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pisa a 18.0% chance to finish in the top two: 20.8% after a win, 18.3% after a draw, 15.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 18.3%.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hellas Verona v Pisa has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 40% / 25% / 35%: the biggest move is Pisa's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Hellas Verona win40%▼ −4
  2. Draw25%▼ −4
  3. Pisa win35%▲ +8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.