11 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Apollon Limassol vs Brann UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Alphamega Stadium, Limassol
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Apollon Limassol 2-4 Brann.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Apollon Limassol, 25% draw, 33% Brann — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Apollon Limassol at 42% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Apollon Limassol5%Draw91%Brann4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽K. M. Ingasonassist: E. Gudmundsson
30'
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen
32'
Niklas Castro
Alen Ožbolt
43'
58'
Kristall Máni Ingason
Leonidas Konomis
74'
🔁A. Ozboltout: G. Assuncao
74'
🔁B. Thomasout: I. Ugbo
74'
74'
🔁E. Gudmundssonout: N. Holm
81'
🔁J. Soltvedtout: V. Dragsnes
⚽I. Ljubicassist: M. Brown
86'
88'
🔁N. Wassbergout: B. Finne
88'
🔁N. Castroout: S. Magnusson
🔁J. Kvidaout: E. Aiwu
90'
🔁B. Gasparout: A. Shikkis
90'
🔁D. Escricheout: K. Balogiannis
90+2'
90'
⚽N. Holmassist: V. Dragsnes
⚽G. Weissbeck
92'
95'
⚽N. Holmassist: K. Eriksen
Antreas Shikkis
100'
🔁G. Weissbeckout: C. Duodu
105'
105'
🔁F. Knudsenout: D. Mbacke
105'
⚽K. Eriksenassist: V. Dragsnes
118'
Kristall Máni Ingason
118'
Kristall Máni Ingason

Match stats — Apollon Limassol vs Brann

25%Possession75%
9On target6
9Corners1

Line-ups

Apollon Limassol 4-2-3-1
  • 22P. KuhnG
  • 76B. GasparD
  • 37L. KonomisD
  • 44J. KvidaD
  • 14G. MalekkidisD
  • 5M. BrownM
  • 77I. LjubicM
  • 30D. EscricheF
  • 27G. WeissbeckM
  • 23B. ThomasM
  • 9A. OzboltF
Substitutes
  • 41P. LeeuwenburghG
  • 4E. AiwuD
  • 11E. AndreouM
  • 12G. AssuncaoM
  • 17C. DuoduM
  • 18A. AthanasiouM
  • 19N. ZinonosD
  • 20D. SpoljaricM
  • 26A. ShikkisD
Coach: Hernan Losada
Brann 4-3-3
  • 1M. DyngelandG
  • 21D. De RoeveD
  • 3F. KnudsenD
  • 23T. PedersenD
  • 17J. SoltvedtD
  • 19E. GudmundssonM
  • 18J. SorensenM
  • 25N. WassbergM
  • 10K. M. IngasonM
  • 16K. EriksenM
  • 9N. CastroF
Substitutes
  • 12S. NilsenG
  • 36H. M. HellesoyG
  • 6D. MbackeD
  • 11B. FinneF
  • 20V. DragsnesD
  • 22S. MagnussonF
  • 29N. HolmF
  • 32M. HaalandM
Coach: Eirik Horneland

Form going into Apollon Limassol vs Brann

Apollon Limassol

  • W1-0away to Brann5 August 2026
  • W3-0Dila28 July 2026
  • W4-0away to Dila23 July 2026

Brann

  • W3-2Rosenborg2 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Apollon Limassol vs Brann

  • 11 August 2026Apollon Limassol 2–4 BrannUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 5 August 2026Brann 0–1 Apollon LimassolUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Apollon Limassol and Brann

Apollon Limassol

No leading scorers listed yet.

Brann

  • N. Holm6 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.