12 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Rapid Vienna vs Paide UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Allianz Stadion, Vienna
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Rapid Vienna 2-0 Paide.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Rapid Vienna, 21% draw, 18% Paide — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rapid Vienna at 61% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rapid Vienna99%Draw1%Paide0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jakob Schöller
37'
•Marco Tilio
38'
⚽M. Tilioassist: N. Wurmbrand
38'
46'
🔁M. Millerout: R. Smirnov
🔁M. Tilioout: T. Adamsen
63'
🔁M. Haidaraout: P. Dahl
63'
🔁R. Amaneout: N. Bajlicz
63'
68'
🔁M. P. Sohnaout: H. Ojamaa
68'
🔁H. Ojamaaout: E. Tur
Louis Schaub
74'
🔁J. M. Schollerout: S. Raux-Yao
74'
•Nikolaus Wurmbrand
79'
81'
Henri Anier
⚽L. Schaub (pen)
82'
🔁L. Schaubout: M. Seidl
84'
84'
🔁D. Lutsout: P. A. Cham
84'
🔁H. Anierout: K. Piht

Match stats — Rapid Vienna vs Paide

65%Possession35%
23Shots2
7On target1
5Corners1

Line-ups

Rapid Vienna 4-4-2
  • 1N. HedlG
  • 2E. RokaD
  • 55N. CvetkovicD
  • 4J. M. SchollerD
  • 23J. AuerD
  • 15N. WurmbrandM
  • 29R. AmaneM
  • 21L. SchaubM
  • 43M. HaidaraM
  • 7M. TilioF
  • 17T. GulliksenF
Substitutes
  • 25P. GartlerG
  • 50L. OrglerG
  • 22Y. DemirF
  • 8T. AdamsenF
  • 10P. DahlF
  • 61F. DemirD
  • 38J. HornD
  • 77B. BollaD
  • 9E. KaraF
Coach: Johannes Thorup
Paide 4-3-3
  • 99E. JarjuG
  • 15H. OjamaaD
  • 27N. BaranovD
  • 3Victor HugoD
  • 2M. LilanderD
  • 11M. P. Sohna
  • 28O. HoimM
  • 10M. MillerM
  • 77D. LutsF
  • 9H. AnierF
  • 6Daniel CabralF
Substitutes
  • 12M. MeeritsG
  • 8H. OjamaaM
  • 19S. LutsF
  • 7E. TurD
  • 44K. KaitD
  • 16A. SuroginM
  • 30A. BadamosiF
  • 17P. A. ChamM
  • 20K. PihtF
Coach: Tarmo Kink

Form going into Rapid Vienna vs Paide

Rapid Vienna

  • W2-1away to Ried9 August 2026

Paide

  • L1-4Rapid Vienna6 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Zira30 July 2026
  • W1-0Zira23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Rapid Vienna vs Paide

  • 12 August 2026Rapid Vienna 2–0 PaideUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 6 August 2026Paide 1–4 Rapid ViennaUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Rapid Vienna and Paide

Rapid Vienna

  • T. Adamsen4 goals1 assists
  • P. Dahl3 goals
  • Y. Demir2 goals2 assists

Paide

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.