Omonia Nicosia vs AEL 1. Division prediction & result
Final score: Omonia Nicosia 2-0 AEL.
Before kick-off the model made it 74% Omonia Nicosia, 17% draw, 9% AEL — fair odds of 1.35, 5.88 and 11.11.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Cypriot First Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Omonia Nicosia at 74%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Omonia Nicosia vs AEL
Line-ups
- 74P. AndreouM
- 29J. BalkovecD
- 11EwandroM
- 5S. CoulibalyD
- 99L. DionyF
- 93J. DuverneD
- 14M. MarićM
- 7J. MontnorF
- 37Ľ. ŠatkaD
- 22M. TankovicF
- 40FabianoG
- 44G. ViktorosD
- 17F. TănaseM
- 27S. SimičD
- 28M. OdubajoD
- 85A. NeophytouF
- 21M. MayambelaF
- 90C. KonstantinidisD
- 1T. KaminskiG
- 9A. KakoullisF
- 6D. ZdravkovskiM
- 20João TavaresM
- 35Sérgio ConceiçãoD
- 23Diogo GomesM
- 10R. OudinF
- 22K. NeofytouD
- 77F. MugheF
- 19I. MilosavljevićM
- 9S. JovetićF
- 33E. AntoniouD
- 1S. KapinoG
- 75Simonas ChristofiF
- 80Jair TavaresF
- 99G. ChineduF
- Alexandros GeroukalisF
- 2A. KaroD
- 70kyriacos kyriacouD
- 98P. KyriakouG
- 74Samy MerzoukG
- 30G. PapageorgiouM
Form going into Omonia Nicosia vs AEL
Omonia Nicosia
1. Division
- L0-2away to AEK Larnaca26 October 2026
- D2-2Olympiakos19 October 2026
- W3-0away to Karmiotissa9 October 2026
AEL
1. Division
- L1-3Aris25 October 2026
- W2-0away to Omonia Aradippou18 October 2026
- W2-1Omonia 29is Maiou11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Cyprus 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Omonia Nicosia | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 3 | AEL | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Omonia Nicosia vs AEL
- 4 February 2026Omonia Nicosia 1–2 AELCup
- 9 January 2026AEL 0–2 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 22 September 2025Omonia Nicosia 5–0 AEL1. Division
- 28 January 2025Omonia Nicosia 3–0 AELCup
- 12 January 2025AEL 0–4 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 27 September 2024Omonia Nicosia 3–1 AEL1. Division
Leading scorers: Omonia Nicosia and AEL
Omonia Nicosia
GoalsAssists
- L. Diony30
- Ľ. Šatka21
- L. Brouwers20
AEL
No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Omonia Nicosia beat AEL 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Omonia Nicosia at 74%. The goals: Loïs Diony (penalty) 15' for Omonia Nicosia, Jaden Sean Montnor 33' for Omonia Nicosia.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Omonia Nicosia a 36.9% chance to finish top of the regular season: 38.8% after a win, 28.4% after a draw, 26.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.8%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
For AEL the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 40.9% going in: 58.7% after a win, 41.8% after a draw, 39.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.2%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Omonia Nicosia v AEL has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 76% / 16% / 8% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 74% / 17% / 9%: the biggest move is Omonia Nicosia's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Omonia Nicosia win74%▼ −2
- Draw17%▲ +1
- AEL win9%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.