31 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Omonia Nicosia vs AEL 1. Division prediction & result

GSP Stadium, Nicosia
Referee: Andreas Tehrany, Cyprus
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Omonia Nicosia 2-0 AEL.

Before kick-off the model made it 74% Omonia Nicosia, 17% draw, 9% AEL — fair odds of 1.35, 5.88 and 11.11.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Omonia Nicosia at 74%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Omonia Nicosia99%Draw1%AEL0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Loïs Diony (pen)
15'
20'
diogo gomes
panagiotis andreou
24'
⚽Jaden Sean Montnor
33'
45+2'
evagoras antoniou
46'
🔁kypros neofytouout: Luther Singh
Loïs Diony
58'
58'
Davor Zdravkovski
Muamer Tanković
61'
🔁Loïs Dionyout: Andronikos Kakoullis
67'
🔁Muamer Tankovićout: Florin Tănase
67'
🔁Jure Balkovecout: Moses Odubajo
67'
69'
🔁Joao Tavaresout: Bruno·Almeida
71'
Sergio Conceicao
79'
•
Florin Tănase
83'
84'
🔁Davor Zdravkovskiout: giorgios papageorgiou
84'
🔁evagoras antoniouout: Antreas Karo
Jaden Sean Montnor
87'
🔁Jaden Sean Montnorout: Mihlali Mayambela
90+3'
🔁Jean-Kevin Duverneout: Stefan Simić
90+5'

Match stats — Omonia Nicosia vs AEL

55%Possession45%
13Shots18
5On target8
4Corners4

Line-ups

Omonia Nicosia
  • 74P. AndreouM
  • 29J. BalkovecD
  • 11EwandroM
  • 5S. CoulibalyD
  • 99L. DionyF
  • 93J. DuverneD
  • 14M. MarićM
  • 7J. MontnorF
  • 37Ľ. ŠatkaD
  • 22M. TankovicF
  • 40FabianoG
Substitutes
  • 44G. ViktorosD
  • 17F. TănaseM
  • 27S. SimičD
  • 28M. OdubajoD
  • 85A. NeophytouF
  • 21M. MayambelaF
  • 90C. KonstantinidisD
  • 1T. KaminskiG
  • 9A. KakoullisF
Coach: H. Berg
AEL
  • 6D. ZdravkovskiM
  • 20João TavaresM
  • 35Sérgio ConceiçãoD
  • 23Diogo GomesM
  • 10R. OudinF
  • 22K. NeofytouD
  • 77F. MugheF
  • 19I. MilosavljevićM
  • 9S. JovetićF
  • 33E. AntoniouD
  • 1S. KapinoG
Substitutes
  • 75Simonas ChristofiF
  • 80Jair TavaresF
  • 99G. ChineduF
  • Alexandros GeroukalisF
  • 2A. KaroD
  • 70kyriacos kyriacouD
  • 98P. KyriakouG
  • 74Samy MerzoukG
  • 30G. PapageorgiouM
Coach: Hugo Martins

Form going into Omonia Nicosia vs AEL

Omonia Nicosia

1. Division

  • L0-2away to AEK Larnaca26 October 2026
  • D2-2Olympiakos19 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Karmiotissa9 October 2026

AEL

1. Division

  • L1-3Aris25 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Omonia Aradippou18 October 2026
  • W2-1Omonia 29is Maiou11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Omonia Nicosia9531176+1118
3AEL96031414018

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Omonia Nicosia vs AEL

  • 4 February 2026Omonia Nicosia 1–2 AELCup
  • 9 January 2026AEL 0–2 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
  • 22 September 2025Omonia Nicosia 5–0 AEL1. Division
  • 28 January 2025Omonia Nicosia 3–0 AELCup
  • 12 January 2025AEL 0–4 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
  • 27 September 2024Omonia Nicosia 3–1 AEL1. Division

Leading scorers: Omonia Nicosia and AEL

Omonia Nicosia

GoalsAssists

  • L. Diony30
  • Ľ. Šatka21
  • L. Brouwers20

AEL

No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Omonia Nicosia beat AEL 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Omonia Nicosia at 74%. The goals: Loïs Diony (penalty) 15' for Omonia Nicosia, Jaden Sean Montnor 33' for Omonia Nicosia.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Omonia Nicosia a 36.9% chance to finish top of the regular season: 38.8% after a win, 28.4% after a draw, 26.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.8%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

For AEL the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 40.9% going in: 58.7% after a win, 41.8% after a draw, 39.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.2%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Omonia Nicosia v AEL has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 76% / 16% / 8% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 74% / 17% / 9%: the biggest move is Omonia Nicosia's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Omonia Nicosia win74%▼ −2
  2. Draw17%▲ +1
  3. AEL win9%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.