22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Besiktas Park, Istanbul
Referee: Danny Makkelie
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Beşiktaş 2-2 Crystal Palace.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Beşiktaş, 24% draw, 22% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Beşiktaş at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Beşiktaş4%Draw91%Crystal Palace5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
•Jean-Philippe Mateta
Wilfred Ndidi
15'
🔁Fabio Mirettiout: Salih Özcan
39'
45+1'
Yeremy Pino
⚽Wilfred Ndidiassist: Salih Özcan
45+2'
51'
⚽Yeremy Pinoassist: Anan Khalaili
51'
•Yeremy Pino
55'
⚽Jean-Philippe Mateta
61'
🔁Dwight McNeilout: Ismaila Sarr
61'
🔁Jean-Philippe Matetaout: Jörgen Strand Larsen
🔁Kartal Kayra Yılmazout: Junior Olaitan
64'
🔁Taylan Bulutout: Amir Murillo
64'
Umit Akdag
66'
72'
🔁Yeremy Pinoout: Dario Osorio
⚽Junior Olaitan
73'
🔁Oh Hyeon-gyuout: Dušan Vlahović
75'
🔁Ilhan Fakiliout: Václav Černý
75'
Umit Akdag
77'
85'
🔁Jörgen Strand Larsenout: Eddie Nketiah

Match stats — Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace

59%Possession41%
5Shots8
2On target3
1Corners3
0.73xG0.46

Goals against chances

Beşiktaş2 from 0.73 xGmore than the chances were worth
Crystal Palace2 from 0.46 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Beşiktaş 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. NübelG
  • 22Taylan BulutD
  • 35Tiago DjalóD
  • 50Ü. AkdağD
  • 11K. OuattaraD
  • 4W. NdidiM
  • 29I. FakiliM
  • 21F. MirettiM
  • 8K. YılmazM
  • 19L. TrossardM
  • 9Oh Hyeon-GyuF
Substitutes
  • 80D. AlemdarG
  • 90S. KılıçsoyF
  • 62A. MurilloD
  • 15J. OlaitanM
  • 17E. PokuF
  • 53E. TopçuD
  • 28D. VlahovićF
  • 33R. YılmazD
  • 58Y. ÖzcanD
Coach: V. Italiano
Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
  • 44W. BenítezG
  • 26C. RichardsD
  • 5A. DisasiD
  • 6J. CanvotD
  • 25A. KhalailiM
  • 20A. WhartonM
  • 18D. KamadaM
  • 3T. MitchellM
  • 11D. McNeilM
  • 10Yeremy PinoM
  • 14J. MatetaF
Substitutes
  • 54D. BenamarD
  • 81Lucca BenettonG
  • 33B. ChilwellD
  • 19W. HughesM
  • 22J. Strand LarsenF
  • 31R. MatthewsG
  • 30Óscar MinguezaD
  • 9E. NketiahF
  • 24D. OsorioM
Coach: P. Sage

Form going into Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace

Beşiktaş

UEFA Europa League

  • W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim15 October 2026
  • W4-1Marseille17 September 2026

Crystal Palace

UEFA Europa League

  • L2-3away to Lyon15 October 2026
  • W4-0Lech Poznan17 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Beşiktaş4211118+37
21Crystal Palace412196+35

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Beşiktaş and Crystal Palace

Beşiktaş

GoalsAssists

  • J. Olaitan23
  • Oh Hyeon-Gyu21

Crystal Palace

GoalsAssists

  • Yeremy Pino30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Beşiktaş and Crystal Palace drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Beşiktaş at 54% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Wilfred Ndidi 45+2' for Beşiktaş, Yeremy Pino 51' for Crystal Palace, Jean-Philippe Mateta 55' for Crystal Palace, Junior Olaitan 73' for Beşiktaş. Sent off: Umit Akdag (Beşiktaş) 77'. On expected goals it finished 0.73–0.46.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.