Bournemouth vs AC Milan UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Bournemouth 3-0 AC Milan.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Bournemouth, 27% draw, 41% AC Milan — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
AC Milan at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bournemouth vs AC Milan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 20M. Di GregorioG
- 5J. HillD
- 18B. DiakitéD
- 14António SilvaD
- 3A. TruffertD
- 11B. DoakM
- 10R. ChristieM
- 12T. AdamsM
- 16M. TavernierM
- 19J. KluivertF
- 9EvanilsonF
- 55M. AllanG
- 7D. BrooksM
- 4L. CookM
- 21A. AdliF
- 1Đ. PetrovićG
- 37RayanF
- 30Á. RodríguezF
- 15A. SmithD
- 6J. SolerD
- 16M. MaignanG
- 23F. TomoriD
- 5K. De WinterD
- 31S. PavlovićD
- 22Diego MoreiraM
- 80Y. MusahM
- 30A. JashariM
- 2P. EstupiñánM
- 20O. HutchinsonM
- 8R. Loftus-CheekM
- 70A. CissèF
- 41L. P. BouyerG
- 73F. CamardaF
- 28C. ComottoM
- 13S. BocoumD
- 34Mario GilaD
- 14L. ModrićM
- 11C. PulišićM
- 12A. RabiotM
- 96L. TorrianiG
Form going into Bournemouth vs AC Milan
Bournemouth
UEFA Europa League
- W3-0Sturm Graz15 October 2026
- W2-1away to Real Sociedad17 September 2026
AC Milan
UEFA Europa League
- W4-0away to Red Bull Salzburg15 October 2026
- L0-2Benfica16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 12 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Bournemouth and AC Milan
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- Rayan30
AC Milan
GoalsAssists
- A. Cissè30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bournemouth beat AC Milan 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for AC Milan at 41% and given a win for Bournemouth 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Justin Kluivert (penalty) 8' for Bournemouth, Marcus Tavernier (penalty) 32' for Bournemouth, Amine Adli 84' for Bournemouth. Sent off: Mike Maignan (AC Milan) 27'. On expected goals it finished 3.22–0.17.
How the call on Bournemouth v AC Milan has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 32% / 27% / 41%: the biggest move is AC Milan's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Bournemouth win32%▼ −3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- AC Milan win41%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.