Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Celje 2-2 Red Bull Salzburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Celje, 29% draw, 36% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Red Bull Salzburg at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Žan-Luk LebanG
- 2P. ŠirvysD
- 44Ł. BejgerD
- 6A. TutyškinasD
- 11M. AvdyliD
- 10S. SešlarM
- 19M. ZabukovnikM
- 8M. KvesićM
- 25V. TushaF
- 9B. KramerF
- 7B. VerbičF
- 13Papa Mustapha DanielM
- 20A. DionkouD
- 91Y. DukulyF
- 23Ž. FrelihG
- 4D. HrkaM
- 77M. IvanšekF
- 12L. KolarG
- 33L. KoútrisD
- 47A. KučysF
- 52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
- 39L. MorgallaD
- 44K. BomaD
- 21T. DrexlerD
- 31D. SchmidD
- 32A. BarryM
- 7U. TohumcuM
- 23D. RedzicM
- 8S. KitanoM
- 11Y. VertessenM
- 9H. TabakovićF
- 47Valentin ZabranskyD
- 41Nikola ŠarčevićG
- 4J. MellbergD
- 15B. MazurekM
- 35J. LindstrømM
- 22S. LainerD
- 13F. KrätzigD
- 19K. KonatéF
- 1C. FrüchtlG
Form going into Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg
Celje
UEFA Europa League
- L0-3Omonia Nicosia15 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bayer Leverkusen16 September 2026
Red Bull Salzburg
UEFA Europa League
- L0-4AC Milan15 October 2026
- W1-0away to Levski Sofia17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Celje and Red Bull Salzburg drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Red Bull Salzburg at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Sota Kitano 9' for Red Bull Salzburg, Jesper Lindstrom 46' for Red Bull Salzburg, Blaž Kramer 50' for Celje, A. Kučys 90' for Celje. On expected goals it finished 1.53–1.72.
How the call on Celje v Red Bull Salzburg has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 36% / 27% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.
- Celje win35%▼ −1
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Red Bull Salzburg win36%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Celje's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Red Bull Salzburg's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.