Ararat-Armenia
vs
Sparta Praha
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Ararat-Armenia 1-4 Sparta Praha.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Ararat-Armenia, 24% draw, 57% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Ararat-Armenia 0.96, Sparta Praha 2.53.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 57% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha
Ararat-Armenia
- W1-0Universitatea Craiova27 August 2026
- D1-1away to Universitatea Craiova20 August 2026
Sparta Praha
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
- W4-0away to Artis22 August 2026
- W4-1Teplice15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
A clear gap in the ratings
Ararat-Armenia carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.8 for Sparta Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.96 goals for Ararat-Armenia and 2.53 for Sparta Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ararat-Armenia rate 0.53 in attack and 2.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Praha rate 1.00 and 1.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Ararat-Armenia against 2.53 for Sparta Praha. Ararat-Armenia's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.11 for Sparta Praha.