Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Ararat-Armenia 1-4 Sparta Praha.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Ararat-Armenia, 24% draw, 57% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sparta Praha at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha
Line-ups
- 98Joao BravimG
- 3Junior JulioD
- 43B. R. Wilson ValdezD
- 47A. MalisD
- 16E. GrigoryanD
- 2H. OliveiraM
- 19K. MuradyanM
- 70BennyM
- 77A. SerobyanF
- 91Sandro LimaF
- 11Z. BanjaquiF
- 1A. NersesyanG
- 14B. PereiraD
- 5Luis FelipeD
- 20A. TeraM
- 17M. CarlierM
- 10A. AmbartsumyanM
- 8J. A. BalantaM
- 25A. NdourF
- 9A. EloyanM
- 44J. SurovcikG
- 2M. SuchomelD
- 22L. Mbe SohD
- 6T. GuddalD
- 11M. RynesD
- 10A. KarabecM
- 28R. MacekM
- 38H. SochurekM
- 17J. MercadoF
- 14J. BrunesF
- 7J. AlcocerF
- 47K. HegyiG
- 54L. FrancG
- 3P. KaderabekD
- 30J. ZelenyD
- 15V. VitalyosD
- 5S. EnemeM
- 31M. JurasekM
- 26P. VydraM
- 18A. IrvingM
Form going into Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha
Ararat-Armenia
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Universitatea Craiova27 August 2026
- D1-1away to Universitatea Craiova20 August 2026
- L0-2away to Celje11 August 2026
- W2-1Celje4 August 2026
- L1-2away to Shamrock Rovers28 July 2026
Sparta Praha
All competitions we cover
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
- W4-0away to Artis22 August 2026
- W4-1Teplice15 August 2026
What these results say
- Ararat-Armenia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ararat-Armenia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Praha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sparta Praha had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 0 |
| 22 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha
- 14 August 2025Ararat-Armenia 1–2 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa Conference League
- 7 August 2025Sparta Praha 4–1 Ararat-ArmeniaUEFA Europa Conference League
The result against the call
Sparta Praha won 4–1 at Ararat-Armenia. The model had made a win for Sparta Praha its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: T. Guddal 20' for Sparta Praha, T. Guddal 22' for Sparta Praha, J. Mercado 53' for Sparta Praha, B. R. Wilson Valdez 55' for Ararat-Armenia, P. Vydra 71' for Sparta Praha.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.