Ghazl El Mehalla
vs
Zamalek SC
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Ghazl El Mehalla 0-1 Zamalek SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Ghazl El Mehalla, 29% draw, 38% Zamalek SC — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Ghazl El Mehalla 1.25, Zamalek SC 1.46.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zamalek SC at 38% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC
Line-ups
- 16Amer AmerG
- 23F. Nechat DjabriD
- 3Ahmed El AashD
- 4Ahmed ShoushaD
- 12Yehia ZakariaD
- 20M. TouréM
- 17Abdel Rahman OsamaM
- 7Mohamed AshrafM
- 9R. ArfaouiM
- 41Kibou SaïdiM
- 63Abdel Kader YehiaF
- 14Abdel Rahman EmadM
- 99Hazem MohamedF
- 8Moaz Abdel SalamM
- 22Ahmed EtmanM
- 30Amr GomaaF
- 66A. RashdanD
- 10Bassam WalidD
- 15Ahmed GamalD
- 1A. El NafarawyG
- 37Al Mahdi SolimanG
- 4Omar GaberD
- 24Mohamed IsmailD
- 28Mahmoud Hamdi El WenshD
- 3M. BentaygD
- 17Mohamed ShehataM
- 12Ahmed RabieM
- 98Oday DabbaghM
- 19Abdalla El SaidM
- 81Chico BanzaM
- 7Hossam AshrafF
- 9Naser MansyF
- 52Mohamed Ibrahim HassanD
- 18A. KaiedF
- 31Ahmed SherifF
- 97A. KhodaryD
- 6Mahmoud GehadM
- 13Ahmed Abou El FotouhD
- 16Mohamed SobhiG
- 20Mostafa El ZenaryD
Form going into Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC
Ghazl El Mehalla
- L1-3away to National Bank of Egypt7 September 2026
- D0-0Enppi1 September 2026
- L0-2away to Future FC27 August 2026
- L0-3Pyramids FC22 August 2026
Zamalek SC
- W2-0Abu Qair Semad8 September 2026
- W2-1Petrojet31 August 2026
- W3-0away to National Bank of Egypt26 August 2026
- D0-0Al Ittihad Alexandria21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 |
| 1 | Zamalek SC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC
- 16 September 2026Ghazl El Mehalla 0–1 Zamalek SCPremier League
- 4 October 2025Zamalek SC 1–1 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
- 2 December 2024Ghazl El Mehalla 0–4 Zamalek SCPremier League
- 27 June 2023Zamalek SC 2–0 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
- 24 January 2023Ghazl El Mehalla 2–1 Zamalek SCPremier League
- 16 July 2022Ghazl El Mehalla 0–2 Zamalek SCPremier League
Leading scorers: Ghazl El Mehalla and Zamalek SC
Ghazl El Mehalla
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Zamalek SC
- Hossam Ashraf2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.25 goals for Ghazl El Mehalla and 1.46 for Zamalek SC; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ahmed Sherif 88' (Zamalek SC).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zamalek SC the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ghazl El Mehalla against 1.46 for Zamalek SC. Ghazl El Mehalla's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.42 for Zamalek SC.