Anderlecht vs Lyon UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Anderlecht 1-2 Lyon.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Anderlecht, 31% draw, 28% Lyon — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Anderlecht at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Anderlecht vs Lyon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26C. CoosemansG
- 79A. MaamarD
- 12A. OmobamideleD
- 27L. PetrotD
- 6L. AugustinssonD
- 18L. AmbrosM
- 24E. LlansanaM
- 8R. AmaneM
- 10M. WinklerM
- 9M. CvetkovicF
- 19T. AasgaardF
- 32J. HeekerenG
- 5O. ReabciukD
- 50K. BarryD
- 55M. KanaM
- 29M. StroeykensM
- 68N. Kalonji KafumpataM
- 21T. BentayebF
- 61J. Nga KanaM
- 11O. AntmanF
- 40R. DescampsG
- 21R. KluivertD
- 22C. MataD
- 19M. NiakhateD
- 76M. OuedraogoD
- 6T. TessmannM
- 23T. MortonM
- 99N. NarteyM
- 26K. BoudacheF
- 17L. OpendaF
- 11K. NakamuraF
- 1D. GreifG
- 25J. BenguiG
- 13Z. AthekameD
- 3N. TagliaficoD
- 20F. BacherD
- 8C. TolissoM
- 2M. BidstrupM
- 18K. MerahM
- 10P. SulcM
Form going into Anderlecht vs Lyon
Anderlecht
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to KV Mechelen11 September 2026
- D0-0Genk6 September 2026
- W1-0Kortrijk3 September 2026
- L0-3away to Union St. Gilloise30 August 2026
- W3-0Kairat Almaty27 August 2026
Lyon
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Paris FC12 September 2026
- W3-1Auxerre4 September 2026
- D1-1Le Havre29 August 2026
- L1-2Fenerbahçe26 August 2026
- W2-0away to Toulouse22 August 2026
What these results say
- Anderlecht kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lyon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Anderlecht vs Lyon
- 16 July 2022Anderlecht 2–3 LyonFriendlies Clubs
The result against the call
Lyon won 2–1 at Anderlecht. The model had leaned towards a win for Anderlecht at 41% and given a win for Lyon 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: N. Nartey 8' for Lyon, K. Nakamura 22' for Lyon, M. Cvetkovic 61' for Anderlecht. On expected goals it finished 1.43–1.27.
How the call on Anderlecht v Lyon has moved
First published on 2 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 31% / 28%: the biggest move is Lyon's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Anderlecht win41%▲ +3
- Draw31%▲ +2
- Lyon win28%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Anderlecht's most recent league matches and Lyon's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.