AC Milan
vs
Benfica
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: AC Milan 0-2 Benfica.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% AC Milan, 27% draw, 40% Benfica — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: AC Milan 1.52, Benfica 1.79.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: AC Milan vs Benfica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 40% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AC Milan vs Benfica
AC Milan
- D2-2away to Lazio12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
- W2-0Venezia28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Torino23 August 2026
Benfica
- W3-1away to Aarhus27 August 2026
- W3-1Aarhus20 August 2026
- D1-1away to Heart of Midlothian13 August 2026
- W6-1Heart of Midlothian6 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 2 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: AC Milan and Benfica
AC Milan
No league goals yet this season.
Benfica
- V. Pavlidis5 goals1 assists
- Rafa2 goals1 assists
- A. Schjelderup1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
AC Milan carry a model rating of 6.92 against 7.16 for Benfica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for AC Milan and 1.79 for Benfica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AC Milan rate 1.14 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Benfica rate 1.50 and 0.82.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for AC Milan against 1.79 for Benfica. AC Milan's attack/defence rating is 1.14/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.5/0.82 for Benfica.