24 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Neftchi Baku vs Turan Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Palms Sports Arena, Baku
Referee: A. Aliyev
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Neftchi Baku 1-1 Turan.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Neftchi Baku, 25% draw, 19% Turan — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Neftchi Baku at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Neftchi Baku4%Draw93%Turan3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Igor Ribeiro
30'
🔁A. Skribekout: E. Badalov
32'
Gustavo Klismahn
42'
⚽Breno Almeida
44'
🔁D. Savicout: I. Mathew
46'
52'
D. Balau
64'
🔁S. Beusnardout: D. Tavares
64'
🔁R. Mammadovout: R. Olabe
64'
🔁D. Balauout: A. Jankovic
64'
🔁Henrique Silvaout: D. Marandici
E. Badalov
69'
73'
⚽A. Jankovic
73'
J. Silva
🔁Breno Almeidaout: E. Safarov
78'
🔁F. Vargasout: B. Sambou
78'
V. Sevelj
86'
88'
🔁I. Wadjiout: R. Sadykhov
90'
H. Hurtado
🔁Gustavo Klismahnout: D. Jubitana
90+2'

Line-ups

Neftchi Baku
Coach: Yuriy Vernydub
Turan
Coach: Kurban Berdyev

Form going into Neftchi Baku vs Turan

Neftchi Baku

Premyer Liqa

  • D3-3away to Qarabag17 October 2026
  • D0-0Sabah FA9 October 2026

Turan

Premyer Liqa

  • L0-1away to Imisli FK18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Safa Baku11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Neftchi Baku117312611+1524
2Turan11632128+421

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Neftchi Baku vs Turan

  • 9 March 2026Neftchi Baku 0–1 TuranPremyer Liqa
  • 28 November 2025Turan 0–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
  • 29 August 2025Neftchi Baku 0–1 TuranPremyer Liqa
  • 10 May 2025Turan 1–2 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
  • 10 March 2025Neftchi Baku 1–1 TuranPremyer Liqa
  • 21 December 2024Turan 1–1 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa

The result against the call

Neftchi Baku and Turan drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Neftchi Baku at 56% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Breno Almeida 44' for Neftchi Baku, A. Jankovic 73' for Turan. Sent off: Igor Ribeiro (Neftchi Baku) 30'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Turan a 29.9% chance to finish in the top four: 39.3% after a win, 30.7% after a draw, 26.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 30.7%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.