24 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Safa Baku vs Kapaz Premyer Liqa prediction & result

ASK Arena, Baku
Referee: J. Jalilov
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Safa Baku 1-2 Kapaz.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Safa Baku, 31% draw, 33% Kapaz — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Safa Baku at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Safa Baku0%Draw4%Kapaz96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽V. Stina (pen)assist: V. Stina
R. Huseynli
40'
⚽M. Jarjue
55'
Tiago Silva
57'
69'
🔁R. Maharramliout: A. Abubakar
🔁Luis Felipeout: B. Dansoko
72'
74'
⚽S. Seyidov (pen)
80'
⚽Benito
88'
🔁Benitoout: A. Atakishiyev
88'
🔁R. Haciyevout: A. Samadov
🔁R. Huseynliout: I. Zulfugarli
89'
90+3'
🔁V. Stinaout: S. Ismayilov

Line-ups

Kapaz
Coach: Azar Mammadov

Form going into Safa Baku vs Kapaz

Safa Baku

Premyer Liqa

  • L2-3away to Şamaxı FK16 October 2026
  • L0-1Turan11 October 2026

Kapaz

Premyer Liqa

  • D1-1Zira18 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Araz9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Safa Baku11128820-125
6Kapaz105231010017

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Kapaz won 2–1 at Safa Baku. The model had leaned towards a win for Safa Baku at 36% and given a win for Kapaz 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Jarjue 55' for Safa Baku, S. Seyidov (penalty) 74' for Kapaz, Benito 80' for Kapaz.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Safa Baku a 56.2% chance to finish in the bottom two: 48.7% after a win, 58.1% after a draw, 63.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.0%, 6.8 points higher than before the match.

For Kapaz the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 9.0% going in: 5.7% after a win, 8.5% after a draw, 11.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.7%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.