Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Spartak Varna 1-1 CSKA Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Spartak Varna, 31% draw, 36% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
CSKA Sofia at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 23P. IlievG
- 76D. ValverdeM
- 44A. GranchovD
- 45J. TshitokuD
- 4B. IvanovD
- 6R. SousaM
- 19S. MajorM
- 10Jota LopesM
- 11B. HanneM
- 77A. IvanovM
- 70A. AhmedovF
- 1P. VictorG
- 3M. Juric-PetrasiloD
- 7Bua
- 9T. ChunchukovF
- 17T. MarinovM
- 20D. LozevD
- 80A. GomesF
- 82T. SilvaM
- 99G. TrifonovF
- 21F. LapoukhovG
- 2PastorD
- 14T. IvanovD
- 32F. RodriguezD
- 17A. MartinoD
- 7M. EbongM
- 6B. JordaoM
- 8S. SensiM
- 99J. Eto'oM
- 9L. GodoyF
- 28I. PittasF
- 3T. OuorouD
- 4D. Almeida
- 5J. GbaminD
- 19A. YordanovD
- 25D. EvtimovG
- 30P. PanayotovM
- 34V. Kaymakanov
- 38Leo PereiraM
- 67C. Itu
Form going into Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia
Spartak Varna
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Ludogorets30 August 2026
- L0-6away to Levski Sofia22 August 2026
- L0-1Septemvri Sofia17 August 2026
- L2-3away to Botev Plovdiv10 August 2026
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv3 August 2026
CSKA Sofia
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Cherno More Varna30 August 2026
- L0-2OFI27 August 2026
- L0-3away to OFI20 August 2026
- W5-0Botev Vratsa16 August 2026
- L1-3Maccabi Tel Aviv13 August 2026
What these results say
- Spartak Varna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Varna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for CSKA Sofia had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 32 | 9 | +23 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia
- 29 November 2025Spartak Varna 0–4 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 26 July 2025CSKA Sofia 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 13 May 2025CSKA Sofia 5–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 26 April 2025Spartak Varna 0–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 15 December 2024Spartak Varna 2–3 CSKA SofiaCup
- 3 December 2024CSKA Sofia 3–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
Leading scorers: Spartak Varna and CSKA Sofia
Spartak Varna
GoalsAssists
- Georg Stojanovski11
- J. Tshitoku10
CSKA Sofia
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Jordão20
- I. Pittas10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Spartak Varna and CSKA Sofia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for CSKA Sofia at 36% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: I. Pittas 18' for CSKA Sofia, B. Hanne 33' for Spartak Varna.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.