Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Spartak Varna 1-1 CSKA Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Spartak Varna, 31% draw, 36% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Sofia at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia
Spartak Varna
- D1-1Ludogorets30 August 2026
- L0-6away to Levski Sofia22 August 2026
- L0-1Septemvri Sofia17 August 2026
CSKA Sofia
- W3-1Cherno More Varna30 August 2026
- W5-0Botev Vratsa16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia
- 29 November 2025Spartak Varna 0–4 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 26 July 2025CSKA Sofia 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 13 May 2025CSKA Sofia 5–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 26 April 2025Spartak Varna 0–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 15 December 2024Spartak Varna 2–3 CSKA SofiaCup
- 3 December 2024CSKA Sofia 3–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League