Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Arda Kardzhali 1-1 Levski Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 18% Arda Kardzhali, 25% draw, 57% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 5.56, 4.00 and 1.75.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Levski Sofia at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia
Line-ups
- 1A. GospodinovG
- 6V. PopovD
- 24M. PaskalevD
- 2Derick Fernando da SilvaD
- 35D. VelkovskiD
- 80L. KotevM
- 21V. VelevD
- 99B. KaragarenF
- 91S. IvanovF
- 10S. KovachevF
- 16P. BachevF
- 26B. AkandzhaM
- 22Y. GeorgievG
- 11A. KabovF
- 5V. LyubenovD
- 70Nabil MakniF
- 44Adama Ardile TraoréD
- 18S. VasilevD
- 39A. VutovM
- 8D. YankovM
- 1O. VladimirovG
- 71O. KamdemD
- 50K. DimitrovD
- 31N. SerafimovD
- 20Álex CentellesD
- 8M. GrujićM
- 19E. El MoubarikM
- 22M. SoulaM
- 35SerginhoM
- 11A. Oko-FlexF
- 7ReinaldoF
- 55P. HristovD
- 3MaiconF
- 4C. MakounD
- 21AldairD
- 9J. PereaF
- 77A. RaychevF
- 12M. SangaréF
- 28S. StoyanchovF
- 92S. VutsovG
Form going into Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
First League
- L0-5away to Ludogorets12 October 2026
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 September 2026
Levski Sofia
First League
- W2-0away to Cherno More Varna11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Botev Vratsa13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 21 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 8 | +17 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia
- 9 April 2026Levski Sofia 1–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 2 November 2025Arda Kardzhali 0–3 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 14 May 2025Arda Kardzhali 0–3 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 26 April 2025Levski Sofia 1–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 16 March 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–1 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 29 September 2024Levski Sofia 2–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
Leading scorers: Arda Kardzhali and Levski Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
GoalsAssists
- B. Karagaren11
- S. Kovachev10
- A. Kabov10
Levski Sofia
No player in First League's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arda Kardzhali and Levski Sofia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Levski Sofia at 57% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Preslav·Bachev 23' for Arda Kardzhali, Álex Centelles 62' for Levski Sofia.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arda Kardzhali a 4.7% chance to finish in the top four: 8.2% after a win, 5.3% after a draw, 3.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.3%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.
For Levski Sofia the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 65.0% going in: 70.4% after a win, 59.0% after a draw, 53.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 59.0%, 6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Arda Kardzhali v Levski Sofia has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 21% / 27% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 18% / 25% / 57%: the biggest move is Levski Sofia's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Arda Kardzhali win18%▼ −3
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Levski Sofia win57%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.