30 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna First League prediction & result

Bistritsa Stadium, Sofia
Referee: Martin Markov
Full time6 – 1

Final score: CSKA 1948 6-1 Spartak Varna.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% CSKA 1948, 22% draw, 14% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 1.56, 4.55 and 7.14.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

CSKA 1948 at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA 194899%Draw1%Spartak Varna0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
Joey Tshitoku
Elias Correa Franco
14'
20'
⚽anton ivanovassist: Joao Lopes
⚽Elias Correa Francoassist: Emerson
22'
⚽Benaissa Benamar
28'
46'
🔁Angel Granchovout: boris ivanov
🔁Brian Sobreroout: Atanas Iliev
46'
⚽Atanas Iliev (pen)
48'
⚽Georgi Rusevassist: Jules Meyer
59'
60'
🔁anton ivanovout: Tomas Silva
61'
🔁Joao Lopesout: David Valverde
⚽Hector Cuellarassist: Jules Meyer
67'
🔁Elias Correa Francoout: Bernardo Marques Duarte Couto
68'
🔁danilo terasenkoout: Ognjen Gasevic
68'
72'
🔁Okoh chideraout: Tsvetelin Chunchukov
72'
🔁Boubacar Hanneout: Bua
🔁Lasha Dvaliout: kostadin iliev
75'
🔁Georgi Rusevout: Kaloyan Strinski
75'
⚽Atanas Iliev
82'
85'
Bua

Match stats — CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna

68%Possession32%
22Shots9
10On target3
3Corners2

Line-ups

CSKA 1948 4-4-2
  • 31A. BozhevG
  • 5B. BenamarD
  • 6EmersonD
  • 3L. DvaliD
  • 20B. SobreroM
  • 33H. CuellarD
  • 30J. MeyerM
  • 8M. ZemzemiM
  • 71danilo terasenkoF
  • 77Elias FrancoF
  • 11G. RusevF
Substitutes
  • 14K. StrinskiM
  • 10B. TsonevM
  • 34P. VitanovM
  • 7BernaM
  • 93M. DialloF
  • 67Frédéric MacielF
  • 22O. GaševićF
  • 4A. HoffmannD
  • 9A. IlievF
Coach: Ognyan Mladenov
Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 23P. IlievG
  • 44A. GranchovD
  • 5D. KrastevD
  • 45J. TshitokuD
  • 29Z. TindanoD
  • 19S. MajorM
  • 17T. MarinovM
  • 77A. IvanovF
  • 11Boubacar HanneF
  • 90C. OkohF
  • 10J. LopesF
Substitutes
  • 76David ValverdeD
  • 6José Ricardo Gomes SousaM
  • 82Tomás SilvaM
  • 72Vasco OliveiraD
  • 3Mateo Jurić-PetrašiloD
  • 9T. ChunchukovF
  • 7BuaM
  • 1Pedro VictorG
Coach: V. Petrov

Form going into CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna

CSKA 1948

First League

  • W4-0Botev Plovdiv23 October 2026
  • L2-3CSKA Sofia11 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Slavia Sofia18 September 2026

Spartak Varna

First League

  • L0-2away to Dunav Ruse24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Botev Vratsa10 October 2026
  • L0-1Lokomotiv Sofia20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4CSKA 1948149233316+1729
7Spartak Varna144461525-1016

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna

  • 17 July 2026Spartak Varna 2–2 CSKA 1948First League
  • 14 March 2026Spartak Varna 1–2 CSKA 1948First League
  • 4 October 2025CSKA 1948 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 29 November 2024Spartak Varna 1–1 CSKA 1948First League
  • 28 July 2024CSKA 1948 2–2 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 3 May 2023Spartak Varna 3–3 CSKA 1948First League

Leading scorers: CSKA 1948 and Spartak Varna

CSKA 1948

GoalsAssists

  • Frédéric Maciel30
  • Elias Franco20
  • A. Iliev10

Spartak Varna

GoalsAssists

  • Georg Stojanovski11
  • J. Tshitoku10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

CSKA 1948 beat Spartak Varna 6–1. The model had made a win for CSKA 1948 its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: anton ivanov 20' for Spartak Varna, Elias Correa Franco 22' for CSKA 1948, Benaissa Benamar 28' for CSKA 1948, Atanas Iliev (penalty) 48' for CSKA 1948, Georgi Rusev 59' for CSKA 1948, Hector Cuellar 67' for CSKA 1948, Atanas Iliev 82' for CSKA 1948.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave CSKA 1948 a 90.0% chance to finish in the top four: 92.1% after a win, 86.8% after a draw, 83.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.1%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

For Spartak Varna the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.3% going in: 15.2% after a win, 23.7% after a draw, 32.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.1%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on CSKA 1948 v Spartak Varna has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 62% / 23% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 64% / 22% / 14%: the biggest move is CSKA 1948's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. CSKA 1948 win64%▲ +2
  2. Draw22%▼ −1
  3. Spartak Varna win14%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.