Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Cherno More Varna 2-0 Septemvri Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Cherno More Varna, 27% draw, 26% Septemvri Sofia — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Cherno More Varna at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
Line-ups
- 81K. TomovG
- 50E. TombakD
- 3Z. AtanasovD
- 5L. SquadroneD
- 37V. KerchevD
- 99I. BounaasM
- 24David TelesM
- 7M. BarandasF
- 71V. PanayotovM
- 10Celso SidneyF
- 19G. LazarovF
- 11M. AchiM
- 23M. BanevM
- 29B. BeyhanM
- 8A. DonchevF
- 22N. KostadinovM
- 44Nestorly lumbuD
- 77A. ManasievG
- 34K. MihaylovM
- 93G. VentsislavovD
- 12V. IvanovG
- 13K. ÖnaşçıM
- 26V. OzornwaforD
- 4M. HristovD
- 8B. PenchevM
- 33G. IvanovM
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 19Pedro IgorF
- 10N. IlievM
- 29F. HerardF
- 27André Filipe Rio LiberalF
- 24Z. AtanasovM
- 17N. FontaineF
- 3P. GospodinovD
- 23pedrinhoD
- 1A. RadkovG
- 7E. RibeiroF
- 28S. StoichkovF
- 20B. TomovskiD
- 25S. VulikićD
Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
Cherno More Varna
First League
- L0-2Levski Sofia11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Arda Kardzhali19 September 2026
Septemvri Sofia
First League
- L2-3Dunav Ruse11 October 2026
- L0-3Botev Plovdiv19 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
- 7 March 2026Septemvri Sofia 0–3 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 27 September 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 29 November 2024Septemvri Sofia 1–2 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 29 July 2024Cherno More Varna 2–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 17 March 2023Cherno More Varna 3–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 5 September 2022Septemvri Sofia 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
Leading scorers: Cherno More Varna and Septemvri Sofia
Cherno More Varna
No player in First League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Septemvri Sofia
GoalsAssists
- André Filipe Rio Liberal11
- F. Herard10
- A. Dzhamov10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cherno More Varna beat Septemvri Sofia 2–0. The model had made a win for Cherno More Varna its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: georgi lazarov 15' for Cherno More Varna, Vasil Panayotov 26' for Cherno More Varna. Sent off: Idris·Bounaas (Cherno More Varna) 90+5', Andre Liberal (Septemvri Sofia) 90+6'.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cherno More Varna a 54.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 45.7% after a win, 58.3% after a draw, 67.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.7%, 8.6 points lower than before the match.
For Septemvri Sofia the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 71.3% going in: 57.2% after a win, 71.1% after a draw, 78.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.5%, 7.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.