26 October 2026, 17:30 UTC

CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets First League prediction & result

National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
Referee: Marijan Grebencharski
Full time2 – 0

Final score: CSKA Sofia 2-0 Ludogorets.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% CSKA Sofia, 29% draw, 36% Ludogorets — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ludogorets at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA Sofia99%Draw1%Ludogorets0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruz
⚽Ángelo Martinoassist: Santiago Godoy
26'
46'
🔁simeon shishkovout: Anton Nedyalkov
Bruno Jordão
52'
60'
Caio Vidal Rocha
Ángelo Martino
63'
64'
🔁petar stanicout: Aguibou Camara
64'
🔁Bernard Tekpeteyout: Erick Marcus dos Santos Oliveira do Carmo
teodor ivanov
65'
🔁David Samuel Custódio Limaout: Barry Cotter
68'
🔁Ioannis Pittasout: Jean-Philippe Gbamin
68'
78'
🔁Joel Anderssonout: Ivajlo Čočev
78'
🔁Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruzout: Kwadwo Duah
🔁mohamed brahimiout: Petko Panayotov
81'
🔁teodor ivanovout: Dinis Almeida
81'
Petko Panayotov
82'
86'
petar stanic
🔁Stefano Sensiout: Isaac Solet Bomawoko
86'
⚽Santiago Godoyassist: Isaac Solet Bomawoko
88'

Match stats — CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets

51%Possession49%
11Shots14
7On target3
5Corners7

Line-ups

CSKA Sofia 4-3-3
  • 21F. LapoukhovG
  • 17Á. MartinoD
  • 2PastorD
  • 32Facundo Santiago RodríguezD
  • 14T. IvanovD
  • 6Bruno JordãoM
  • 7M. EbongM
  • 8S. SensiM
  • 28I. PittasF
  • 9S. GodoyF
  • 11M. BrahimiF
Substitutes
  • 4Dinis AlmeidaD
  • 80G. ChorbadzhiyskiM
  • 37B. CotterD
  • 99J. Eto'oM
  • 25D. EvtimovG
  • 67C. ItuM
  • 34V. KaymakanovM
  • 30P. PanayotovM
  • 94I. Solet BomawokoM
Coach: Markus Gisdol
Ludogorets 4-1-4-1
  • 39H. BonmannG
  • 15E. KurtulusD
  • 4Hossam AbdelmaguidD
  • 2J. AnderssonD
  • 42S. ShishkovD
  • 23Deroy DuarteM
  • 6I. ZhelizkoM
  • 14P. StanićM
  • 37B. TekpeteyF
  • 11Caio VidalF
  • 12Rwan CruzF
Substitutes
  • 20A. CamaraM
  • 18I. ChochevM
  • 77Erick MarcusF
  • 13I. GrbićG
  • 8A. HadžiahmetovićM
  • 26F. KaločM
  • 3A. NedyalkovD
  • 22M. PolendakovD
  • 44O. RekikD
Coach: I. Jovičević

Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets

CSKA Sofia

First League

  • W3-2away to CSKA 194811 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 September 2026

Ludogorets

First League

  • W5-0Arda Kardzhali12 October 2026
  • W2-1Septemvri Sofia14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1CSKA Sofia141040329+2334
3Ludogorets139312611+1530

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets

  • 25 May 2026Ludogorets 1–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 3 May 2026CSKA Sofia 1–0 LudogoretsFirst League
  • 29 April 2026CSKA Sofia 0–0 LudogoretsCup
  • 21 April 2026Ludogorets 1–2 CSKA SofiaCup
  • 14 March 2026Ludogorets 3–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 5 October 2025CSKA Sofia 0–0 LudogoretsFirst League

Leading scorers: CSKA Sofia and Ludogorets

CSKA Sofia

GoalsAssists

  • Bruno Jordão20
  • I. Pittas10

Ludogorets

GoalsAssists

  • B. Tekpetey20
  • Rwan Cruz12

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

CSKA Sofia beat Ludogorets 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Ludogorets at 36% and given a win for CSKA Sofia 35%. The goals: Ángelo Martino 26' for CSKA Sofia, Santiago Godoy 88' for CSKA Sofia.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave CSKA Sofia a 9.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 14.2% after a win, 8.9% after a draw, 5.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.2%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.

For Ludogorets the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 20.1% going in: 27.0% after a win, 18.2% after a draw, 12.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.6%, 7.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on CSKA Sofia v Ludogorets has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is Ludogorets's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. CSKA Sofia win35%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Ludogorets win36%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.