24 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

FCSB vs Rapid Liga I prediction & result

Arena Nationala, Bucharest
Referee: Horatiu Fesnic, Romania
Full time4 – 1

Final score: FCSB 4-1 Rapid.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% FCSB, 28% draw, 38% Rapid — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rapid at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FCSB99%Draw1%Rapid0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Filip Stojiljkovićassist: Latif Ouedraogo
🔁Paul Arnold Garitaout: Alexandru Stoian
42'
🔁David Miculescuout: Aymen Boutoutaou
45'
⚽Karlo Muharassist: Risto Radunović
58'
60'
🔁Alexandru Dobreout: Vladan Bubanja
🔁Meriton Korenicaout: Joao Paulo Fernandes
64'
66'
🔁Olimpiu Moruțanout: Claudiu Petrila
⚽Aymen Boutoutaouassist: Karlo Muhar
69'
77'
🔁Chec Bebel Doumbiaout: J. Kodor
78'
🔁Latif Ouedraogoout: Ebenezer Annan
78'
🔁Alexandru Paşcanuout: Sheriff Sinyan
⚽Joao Paulo Fernandesassist: Alexandru Stoian
79'
⚽Aymen Boutoutaouassist: Juri Cisotti
81'
🔁Risto Radunovićout: Dylan Batubinsika
85'
🔁Juri Cisottiout: Dennis Politic
85'
90+2'
Constantin Grameni

Match stats — FCSB vs Rapid

59%Possession41%
22Shots6
9On target2
7Corners0
2.35xG0.48

Goals against chances

FCSB4 from 2.35 xGmore than the chances were worth
Rapid1 from 0.48 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FCSB 4-2-3-1
  • 32Ș. TârnovanuG
  • 2V. CrețuD
  • 5J. DawaD
  • 3André DuarteD
  • 33R. RadunovićD
  • 73K. MuharM
  • 4Ricardo PadurariuM
  • 11D. MiculescuM
  • 31J. CisottiM
  • 7M. KorenicaM
  • 14A. GaritaF
Substitutes
  • 28A. BoutoutaouF
  • 21D. BatubinsikaD
  • 8E. GnahoréM
  • 97R. LabonneD
  • 18João PauloM
  • 20D. PoliticF
  • 98D. PopaF
  • 13M. PopaG
  • 17M. PopescuD
Coach: L. Reghecampf
Rapid 4-2-3-1
  • 99B. UngureanuG
  • 19R. OneaD
  • 5A. PașcanuD
  • 6L. KramerD
  • 66W. L. OuedraogoD
  • 44C. B. DoumbiaM
  • 8C. GrameniM
  • 29A. DobreM
  • 80O. MoruțanM
  • 7M. KamaraM
  • 9F. StojilkovićF
Substitutes
  • 77J. KodorF
  • 18S. SinyanD
  • 17S. SenciucD
  • 10C. PetrilaM
  • 23C. ManeaD
  • 42A. KumerD
  • 90T. JamborF
  • 13D. CiobotariuD
  • 22V. BubanjaM
Coach: D. Pancu

Form going into FCSB vs Rapid

FCSB

Liga I

  • W2-1away to FC Voluntari19 October 2026
  • W1-0Oțelul10 October 2026

Rapid

Liga I

  • W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara17 October 2026
  • W4-3away to Universitatea Cluj12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8FCSB156362021-121
3Rapid159422414+1031

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FCSB vs Rapid

  • 21 December 2025FCSB 2–1 RapidLiga I
  • 17 August 2025Rapid 2–2 FCSBLiga I
  • 27 April 2025Rapid 1–2 FCSBLiga I
  • 16 March 2025FCSB 3–3 RapidLiga I
  • 2 March 2025Rapid 0–0 FCSBLiga I
  • 27 October 2024FCSB 0–0 RapidLiga I

Leading scorers: FCSB and Rapid

FCSB

No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Rapid

GoalsAssists

  • A. Dobre60
  • F. Stojilković41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FCSB beat Rapid 4–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Rapid at 38% and given a win for FCSB 34%. The goals: Filip Stojiljković 11' for Rapid, Karlo Muhar 58' for FCSB, Aymen Boutoutaou 69' for FCSB, Joao Paulo Fernandes 79' for FCSB, Aymen Boutoutaou 81' for FCSB. On expected goals it finished 2.35–0.48.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FCSB a 46.3% chance to finish in the top six: 54.3% after a win, 46.5% after a draw, 39.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.3%, 8 points higher than before the match.

For Rapid the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 20.7% going in: 26.0% after a win, 19.3% after a draw, 14.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.6%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.