25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Farul Constanta vs Oțelul Liga I prediction & result

Central Stadium Hagi Academy, Ovidiu
Referee: Viorel Nicusor Flueran, Romania
Full time4 – 3

Final score: Farul Constanta 4-3 Oțelul.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Farul Constanta, 28% draw, 26% Oțelul — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Farul Constanta at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Farul Constanta97%Draw3%Oțelul0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Matteo Ahlinviassist: Ionuț Vână
8'
13'
Alexandru Viorel Bălănică
⚽Matteo Ahlinviassist: Cristian Ganea
28'
Victor Dican
30'
⚽Răzvan Marincean
40'
45'
🔁Teodor lunguout: Matei Frunză
45'
🔁Alexandru Viorel Bălănicăout: Denis Bordun
55'
⚽Dominick Zatorassist: Pedro Nuno
🔁Narek Grigoryanout: Razvan Tanasa
59'
🔁Răzvan Marinceanout: Alexandru Goncear
59'
Cristian Ganea
63'
⚽Alexandru Goncearassist: Rafael Munteanu
71'
74'
⚽Denis Bordun
🔁Eduard Radaslavescuout: Yann Kitala
77'
78'
⚽Denis Bordun
79'
🔁Rafael Britoout: Dragos Andrei Aftene
79'
🔁Pedro Nunoout: Ze Turbo
🔁Matteo Ahlinviout: Nicolas Popescu
83'

Match stats — Farul Constanta vs Oțelul

35%Possession65%
10Shots21
4On target8
2Corners7
1.23xG1.28

Goals against chances

Farul Constanta4 from 1.23 xGmore than the chances were worth
Oțelul3 from 1.28 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Farul Constanta 3-4-3
  • 12R. MunteanuG
  • 24S. BouzamouchaD
  • 17I. LarieD
  • 6V. DicanD
  • 8I. VînăM
  • 23T. NjikéM
  • 70M. AhlinviM
  • 11C. GaneaM
  • 30N. GrigoryanF
  • 99Răzvan MarinceanF
  • 20E. RădăslăvescuF
Substitutes
  • 2D. MafteiD
  • 1A. BuzbuchiG
  • 29A. GoncearF
  • 33João FerreiraD
  • 4Gustavo MarinsD
  • 21L. PellegriniD
  • 80N. PopescuM
  • 27Hassane Rachid Seyd Sabour TraoréD
  • 19Y. KitalaF
Coach: Ovidiu Sabău
Oțelul 4-3-3
  • 1C. Dur-BozoancăG
  • 44D. ZatorD
  • 3G. ChristopoulosD
  • 6P. IacobD
  • 28Miguel SilvaD
  • 17A. CiobanuM
  • 8Rafael BritoM
  • 39T. LunguM
  • 77A. BalanicaF
  • 9PatrickF
  • 27Pedro NunoF
Substitutes
  • 14Cojoc Robert AdrianM
  • 18D. AfteneM
  • 24D. BordunM
  • 13M. ContraG
  • 11Zé TurboF
  • 30M. FrunzăM
  • 16D. NeicuD
  • 15Mehmet TitizF
Coach: Rui Duarte

Form going into Farul Constanta vs Oțelul

Farul Constanta

Liga I

  • L0-2away to Universitatea Craiova18 October 2026
  • W3-1Petrolul Ploiesti11 October 2026

Oțelul

Liga I

  • D1-1Csikszereda16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to FCSB10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Farul Constanta156632422+224
14Oțelul152761723-613

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Farul Constanta vs Oțelul

  • 3 July 2026Farul Constanta 0–0 OțelulFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 May 2026Oțelul 3–2 Farul ConstantaLiga I
  • 23 November 2025Oțelul 2–2 Farul ConstantaLiga I
  • 20 July 2025Farul Constanta 3–2 OțelulLiga I
  • 16 May 2025Oțelul 0–0 Farul ConstantaLiga I
  • 22 November 2024Farul Constanta 0–1 OțelulLiga I

Leading scorers: Farul Constanta and Oțelul

Farul Constanta

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ahlinvi71
  • E. Rădăslăvescu53

Oțelul

GoalsAssists

  • Patrick40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Farul Constanta beat Oțelul 4–3. The model had made a win for Farul Constanta its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Matteo Ahlinvi 8' for Farul Constanta, Matteo Ahlinvi 28' for Farul Constanta, Răzvan Marincean 40' for Farul Constanta, Dominick Zator 55' for Oțelul, Alexandru Goncear 71' for Farul Constanta, Denis Bordun 74' for Oțelul, Denis Bordun 78' for Oțelul. On expected goals it finished 1.23–1.28.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Farul Constanta a 29.7% chance to finish in the top six: 35.1% after a win, 25.7% after a draw, 20.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.1%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.

For Oțelul the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.4% after a win, 29.2% after a draw, 35.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 35.4%.

Read from our Liga I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Farul Constanta v Oțelul has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 46% / 28% / 26%: the biggest move is Oțelul's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Farul Constanta win46%▲ +1
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Oțelul win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.